Huguenin Maurice F, Holmes Ryan M, England Matthew H
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Nat Commun. 2022 Sep 7;13(1):4921. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32540-5.
Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed almost all of the additional energy in the Earth system due to greenhouse warming. However, sparse observations limit our knowledge of where ocean heat uptake (OHU) has occurred and where this heat is stored today. Here, we equilibrate a reanalysis-forced ocean-sea ice model, using a spin-up that improves on earlier approaches, to investigate recent OHU trends basin-by-basin and associated separately with surface wind trends, thermodynamic properties (temperature, humidity and radiation) or both. Wind and thermodynamic changes each explain ~ 50% of global OHU, while Southern Ocean forcing trends can account for almost all of the global OHU. This OHU is enabled by cool sea surface temperatures and sensible heat gain when atmospheric thermodynamic properties are held fixed, while downward longwave radiation dominates when winds are fixed. These results address long-standing limitations in multidecadal ocean-sea ice model simulations to reconcile estimates of OHU, transport and storage.
自20世纪70年代以来，由于温室变暖，海洋吸收了地球系统中几乎所有额外的能量。然而，观测数据稀少限制了我们对海洋热量吸收（OHU）发生地点以及这些热量如今存储位置的了解。在此，我们使用一种比早期方法有所改进的加速过程，使一个再分析驱动的海洋 - 海冰模型达到平衡，以逐个盆地地研究近期OHU趋势，并分别研究其与表面风趋势、热力学性质（温度、湿度和辐射）或两者的关联。风的变化和热力学变化各自解释了全球OHU的约50%，而南大洋强迫趋势几乎可以解释全球OHU的全部。当大气热力学性质保持不变时，凉爽的海面温度和感热增加促成了这种OHU，而当风固定时，向下的长波辐射起主导作用。这些结果解决了多年代际海洋 - 海冰模型模拟中长期存在的局限性，以协调OHU、传输和存储的估计。
