Preoperative prediction model of microvascular invasion in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an adverse factor for the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to construct a preoperative prediction model for MVI, thereby providing a reference for clinicians in formulating treatment options for HCC.

METHODS

A total of 360 patients with non-metastatic HCC were retrospectively enrolled. We used logistic regression analysis to screen out independent risk factors for MVI and further constructed a predictive model for MVI. The performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis revealed that fibrinogen (>4 g/L) (OR: 6.529), alpha-fetoprotein (≥ 400 ng/mL) (OR: 2.676), cirrhosis (OR: 2.25), tumor size (OR: 1.239), and poor tumor border (OR: 3.126) were independent risk factors of MVI. The prediction model of MVI had C-index of 0.746 and 0.772 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between actual and predicted MVI risk. Finally, DCA reveals that this model has good clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram-based model we established can predict the preoperative MVI well and provides reference for surgeons to make clinical treatment decisions.