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高温、低温和非最佳温度暴露与气候变化下的道路伤害:基于 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的二次分析。

High, low, and non-optimum temperatures exposure on road injuries in a changing climate: a secondary analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, 410078, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(4):11012-11024. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22903-2. Epub 2022 Sep 10.

Abstract

Global warming in the twenty-first century has gradually made high temperatures a major threat to the global population. Health problems associated with extreme temperatures have become a growing public health concern worldwide. This study aimed to estimate road injuries stratified by sex, age, geographic location, and sociodemographic status attribute to high, low, and non-optimal temperatures in 21 regional and global. We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study Results Tool to examine the age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to road injuries in 2019 by Joinpoint regression. In addition, we reported high, low, and non-optimal temperature exposures for road injuries across different groups by gender, age, region, and disease. Moreover, we examined temporal trends in the burden of road disease caused by high, low, and non-optimum temperatures from 1990 to 2019. Trend analyzes were conducted for five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Globally, both ASDR and DALY declined from 1990 to 2019, with average annual percent change (AAPC) values of - 1.3% and - 1.2%, respectively. In 2019, the indicators (death and DALYs) steadily declined, while SDI quintile increased in most regions. Road injuries related to death and DALYs rate attributed to high temperatures were 0.17 and 8.50, respectively, in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, DALYs for road injuries caused by low temperatures showed the most significant upward trend in most regions, especially in low-latitude countries. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the road injury burden caused by high, low, and non-optimum temperatures, which remains high in regions with low SDI. Therefore, special attention should be paid to road injuries in poor countries or in areas with extreme temperatures.

摘要

二十一世纪的全球变暖逐渐使高温成为全球人口的主要威胁。与极端温度相关的健康问题已成为全世界日益严重的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在估计与高温、低温和非最佳温度相关的道路伤害在 21 个区域和全球的性别、年龄、地理位置和社会人口地位分层的负担。我们使用全球疾病负担研究结果工具,通过 Joinpoint 回归分析,检查 2019 年因道路伤害导致的年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)和伤残调整生命年(DALY)。此外,我们按性别、年龄、地区和疾病报告了不同群体中因道路伤害而导致的高温、低温和非最佳温度暴露情况。此外,我们还检查了 1990 年至 2019 年期间由高温、低温和非最佳温度引起的道路疾病负担的时间趋势。对五个社会人口指数(SDI)区域进行了趋势分析。全球范围内,ASDR 和 DALY 从 1990 年到 2019 年呈下降趋势,平均年变化百分比(AAPC)值分别为-1.3%和-1.2%。2019 年,大多数地区的指标(死亡和 DALY)稳步下降,而 SDI 五分位数增加。2019 年,与高温相关的死亡和 DALY 率分别为 0.17 和 8.50。从 1990 年到 2019 年,大多数地区尤其是低纬度国家的低温导致的道路伤害 DALY 呈最显著上升趋势。本研究全面了解了高温、低温和非最佳温度引起的道路伤害负担,在 SDI 较低的地区仍然很高。因此,应特别关注贫穷国家或极端温度地区的道路伤害问题。

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