Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA; Department of Criminal Justice, Westfield State University, Westfield, MA 01086, USA.
Prev Med. 2022 Dec;165(Pt A):107231. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107231. Epub 2022 Sep 7.
Gun violence in many U.S. cities increased dramatically after the commencement of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surges in criminal access to untraceable privately manufactured firearms and new guns purchased from licensed dealers have been suggested as risk factors associated with the pandemic increase in gun violence. Official data on 4593 guns recovered in Oakland, California between 2017 and 2021 that were submitted to ATF for subsequent tracing are analyzed to determine whether the sources of crime guns changed and whether privately manufactured firearms and fast time-to-crime traced guns were more likely to be used in violent crime during this time period. Descriptive statistics are used to summarize the characteristics of firearms recovered during the study period and the results of ATF tracing. Logistic regression models are then used to assess systematic differences between firearms recovered during the pre-pandemic years as compared to firearms recovered during the pandemic years, and determine whether certain firearms are more likely to be recovered in violent crime. These analyses estimated large increases during the pandemic in the odds that recovered firearms were privately manufactured and recently purchased. Recovered privately manufactured firearms were also more likely to be associated with violent crimes. These findings support recent efforts to regulate privately manufactured firearms and continued efforts to reduce the illegal diversion of firearms from lawful commerce.
新冠疫情大流行开始后，美国许多城市的枪支暴力事件急剧增加。有人认为，犯罪分子更容易获得无法追踪的私人制造枪支和从持牌经销商购买的新枪支，这是与大流行期间枪支暴力增加相关的风险因素。对加利福尼亚州奥克兰市在 2017 年至 2021 年期间提交给 ATF 进行后续追踪的 4593 支枪支进行了分析，这些枪支的来源是否发生了变化，以及在这段时间内，私人制造枪支和快速犯罪追踪枪支是否更有可能用于暴力犯罪。采用描述性统计方法总结研究期间回收枪支的特征和 ATF 追踪的结果。然后使用逻辑回归模型评估大流行前年份和大流行年份期间回收枪支之间是否存在系统差异，并确定某些枪支是否更有可能在暴力犯罪中被回收。这些分析估计在大流行期间，回收枪支为私人制造和最近购买的可能性大幅增加。回收的私人制造枪支也更有可能与暴力犯罪有关。这些发现支持最近规范私人制造枪支的努力和继续努力减少枪支从合法商业渠道的非法转移。
