De Biasi Alaina, Braga Anthony A, Velasquez Brad, Wintemute Garen
Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Wayne State University, 656 W. Kirby St., Detroit, MI, 48202, USA.
Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, 558 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA, 19104-6286, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2024 May 2;11(1):17. doi: 10.1186/s40621-024-00500-w.
Privately made firearms (PMFs) or "ghost guns" are homemade, unserialized, untraceable firearms that have been increasingly used in violent crime in the United States. Very little is known about the types of PMFs recovered by law enforcement agencies and the crimes associated with these recoveries. This lack of information limits effective violence prevention policies and practices. Comparative analysis of PMF recoveries in specific cities helps clarify whether local PMF patterns and characteristics vary or reflect more general trends. This research advances epidemiological understanding of emergent violent gun injury prevention challenges by identifying variations in recovered PMF types and use in violent, drug, and weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles and San Diego, California.
Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) identifies patterns among observations (i.e., case configurations) and calculates their probability associated with a given outcome. CACC was used to identify the most common types of PMFs recovered by the Los Angeles (LAPD) and San Diego (SDPD) police departments. For each department and offense type, case configurations with above-average probabilities of offense involvement were determined. Comparisons across departments were made to identify similarities and differences in PMF characteristics and usage.
PMFs were more likely to be involved in violent and weapon-related offenses in Los Angles but more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses in San Diego. In both cities, the 9 mm Polymer 80 handgun was the dominant PMF. However, 9 mm handguns were most likely to be involved in weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles compared to 0.40 handguns in San Diego. Furthermore, large-caliber handguns tended to display above-average probabilities of involvement in violent and drug offenses in Los Angeles. Long guns were represented in case configurations with above-average probabilities of involvement in substantive crimes, including violence.
Comparative analyses of PMF recovery patterns in Los Angeles and San Diego reveal meaningful contextual variations in PMF characteristics and suggest intentional firearm type selections by offenders. The results support increased regulation of PMFs and highlight the importance of efforts to identify and disrupt the illicit supply of large-caliber PMF handguns and PMF long guns.
自制枪支（PMF）或“幽灵枪”是自制的、无序列号且无法追踪的枪支，在美国暴力犯罪中使用得越来越多。对于执法机构收缴的自制枪支类型以及与这些收缴相关的犯罪情况，人们了解甚少。这种信息匮乏限制了有效的暴力预防政策和措施。对特定城市收缴的自制枪支进行比较分析，有助于厘清当地自制枪支的模式和特征是各不相同，还是反映了更普遍的趋势。本研究通过识别加利福尼亚州洛杉矶和圣地亚哥收缴的自制枪支类型差异以及其在暴力、毒品和武器相关犯罪中的使用情况，推进了对新兴暴力枪支伤害预防挑战的流行病学理解。
病例配置联合分析（CACC）可识别观察结果（即病例配置）中的模式，并计算其与给定结果相关的概率。CACC用于识别洛杉矶警察局（LAPD）和圣地亚哥警察局（SDPD）收缴的最常见自制枪支类型。对于每个部门和犯罪类型，确定了犯罪参与概率高于平均水平的病例配置。对各部门进行比较，以确定自制枪支特征和使用情况的异同。
在洛杉矶，自制枪支更有可能涉及暴力和武器相关犯罪，而在圣地亚哥则更有可能涉及毒品相关犯罪。在这两个城市，9毫米聚合80手枪都是主要的自制枪支。然而，与圣地亚哥的0.40口径手枪相比，9毫米手枪在洛杉矶最有可能涉及武器相关犯罪。此外，大口径手枪在洛杉矶涉及暴力和毒品犯罪的概率往往高于平均水平。长枪在涉及实质性犯罪（包括暴力犯罪）概率高于平均水平的病例配置中有所体现。
对洛杉矶和圣地亚哥自制枪支收缴模式的比较分析揭示了自制枪支特征在不同背景下的有意义差异，并表明犯罪者会有意选择枪支类型。研究结果支持加强对自制枪支的监管，并凸显了识别和阻断大口径自制手枪及自制长枪非法供应的努力的重要性。
