Laqueur Hannah S, Schleimer Julia P, Shev Aaron B, Kagawa Rose
Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
California Firearm Violence Research Center, University of California, Davis, 2315 Stockton Blvd., Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2024 Sep 3;11(1):42. doi: 10.1186/s40621-024-00534-0.
Firearm purchasing records offer a potentially important administrative data source to identify individuals at elevated risk of perpetrating firearm violence. In this study, we describe individual, firearm, and transaction characteristics of purchasers in California who were arrested for a firearm-related violent crime (FRV) as compared to the general population of registered purchasers in the state.
Relying on a dataset of all individuals with transaction records in California (1996-2021), linked to criminal records (1980-2021), we enrolled a cohort of individuals for whom we could capture the legal firearm purchase history. We identified those arrested for FRV post purchase, and using incidence density sampling, gender-matched cases to ten purchasers (controls) who remained "at risk" at the time the case was arrested. We focused on the purchase closest in time prior to the arrest ("index" purchase). We implemented conditional logistic regression and included models with controls for individual- and community-level demographics, as well as interactions between firearm and purchasing characteristics and criminal history.
The cohort included 1,212,144 individuals, of whom 6153 were arrested for FRV (0.5%). Cases were matched to 61,530 controls to form the study sample. The largest risk factor was a prior criminal history: purchasers had 5.84 times the risk of FRV if they had a prior arrest within three years of the index purchase (CI 5.44-6.27). Several transaction and firearm characteristics were also associated with FRV. For example, risk increased if the firearm was redeemed at a pawn shop (aIRR: 1.37, CI 1.05-1.77) and decreased if the transaction was a registered private party transfer (vs. retail purchase) (aIRR: 0.83, CI 0.76-0.90) or the firearm was a bolt action firearm (vs. semi-automatic) (aIRR: 0.64, CI 0.51-0.79). In the interaction models, most of the purchase and firearm features only remained significant among those with no criminal history.
Given limited data on firearm transactions, there has been little research on whether the type of firearm an individual purchases or the nature of the purchase might serve as indicators of risk for FRV. We found several transaction and firearm features were associated with risk of FRV. Notably, these features provided little evidence of additional risk for those with a prior criminal record.
枪支购买记录提供了一个潜在的重要行政数据源，可用于识别实施枪支暴力风险较高的个体。在本研究中，我们描述了加利福尼亚州因与枪支相关的暴力犯罪（FRV）被捕的购买者的个人、枪支和交易特征，并与该州注册购买者的总体人群进行比较。
基于加利福尼亚州所有有交易记录的个体（1996 - 2021年）的数据集，并与犯罪记录（1980 - 2021年）相链接，我们纳入了一组能够获取合法枪支购买历史的个体。我们确定了购买后因FRV被捕的个体，并使用发病率密度抽样方法，将性别匹配的病例与在病例被捕时仍处于“风险”中的十名购买者（对照）进行匹配。我们关注逮捕前时间最接近的购买（“索引”购买）。我们实施了条件逻辑回归，并纳入了控制个体和社区层面人口统计学因素的模型，以及枪支和购买特征与犯罪历史之间的相互作用模型。
该队列包括1,212,144名个体，其中6153人因FRV被捕（0.5%）。病例与61,530名对照进行匹配，以形成研究样本。最大的风险因素是先前的犯罪历史：如果购买者在索引购买前三年内有过被捕记录，那么他们实施FRV的风险是其他人的5.84倍（CI 5.44 - 6.27）。一些交易和枪支特征也与FRV相关。例如，如果枪支在当铺赎回，风险会增加（调整后的发病率比：1.37，CI 1.05 - 1.77）；如果交易是注册的私人转让（相对于零售购买），风险会降低（调整后的发病率比：0.83，CI 0.76 - 0.90），或者枪支是栓动式枪支（相对于半自动枪支），风险也会降低（调整后的发病率比：0.64，CI 0.51 - 0.79）。在相互作用模型中，大多数购买和枪支特征仅在没有犯罪历史的人群中仍然显著。
鉴于枪支交易数据有限，关于个人购买的枪支类型或购买性质是否可能作为FRV风险指标的研究很少。我们发现一些交易和枪支特征与FRV风险相关。值得注意的是，这些特征几乎没有为那些有先前犯罪记录的人提供额外风险的证据。
