Dumont Dany
Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER), Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, Canada G5L 3A1.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2022 Oct 31;380(2235):20210253. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0253. Epub 2022 Sep 12.
Despite enormous scientific and technological progress in numerical weather and climate prediction, sea ice still remains unreliably predicted by models, both in short-term forecasting and climate projection applications. The total ice extent in both hemispheres is tied to the location of the ice edge, and consequently to what happens in the portion of the ice cover immediately adjacent to the open ocean that is called the marginal ice zone (MIZ). There is mounting evidence that processes occurring in the MIZ might play an important role in the polar climate of both hemispheres, yet some key physical processes are still missing in models. As sea ice models developed for climate studies are increasingly used for operational forecasting, the missing physics also impede short-term sea ice prediction skills. This paper is a mini-review that provides a historical perspective on how MIZ research has progressed since the 1970s, with a focus on the fundamental importance of the interactions between sea ice and surface gravity waves on sea ice dynamics. Completeness is not achieved, as the body of literature is huge, scattered and rapidly growing, but the intention is to inform future collaborative research efforts to improve our understanding and predictive capabilities of sea ice dynamics in the MIZ. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'.
尽管数值天气和气候预测在科学技术方面取得了巨大进步,但无论是在短期预报还是气候预测应用中,海冰仍然难以被模型可靠地预测。两个半球的总冰面积与冰缘的位置相关,因此与紧邻开阔海洋的冰盖部分(即边缘冰区,MIZ)所发生的情况相关。越来越多的证据表明,边缘冰区发生的过程可能在两个半球的极地气候中发挥重要作用,但模型中仍缺少一些关键的物理过程。随着为气候研究开发的海冰模型越来越多地用于业务预报,缺失的物理过程也阻碍了短期海冰预测技能。本文是一篇小型综述,提供了自20世纪70年代以来边缘冰区研究进展的历史视角,重点关注海冰与表面重力波相互作用对海冰动力学的根本重要性。由于文献数量庞大、分散且增长迅速,无法做到全面涵盖,但目的是为未来的合作研究提供信息,以增进我们对边缘冰区海冰动力学的理解和预测能力。本文是主题特刊“边缘冰区动力学的理论、建模与观测:多学科视角与展望”的一部分。