Yuan Pei, Tan Yi, Yang Liu, Aruffo Elena, Ogden Nicholas H, Bélair Jacques, Heffernan Jane, Arino Julien, Watmough James, Carabin Hélène, Zhu Huaiping
Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM), York University, Toronto, Canada.
Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM), York University, Toronto, Canada.
J Med Virol. 2023 Jan;95(1):e28137. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28137. Epub 2022 Sep 23.
To model the spread of monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread. The animal reservoir is the key element in the modeling of zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.) and emphasize their role and transmission of the virus in a high-risk group, including gay and bisexual men-who-have-sex-with-men (gbMSM). From model and sensitivity analysis, we identify key public health factors and present scenarios under different transmission assumptions. We find that the MPX virus may spill over from gbMSM high-risk groups to broader populations if the efficiency of transmission increases in the higher-risk group. However, the risk of outbreak can be greatly reduced if at least 65% of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. In addition, infections in an animal reservoir will exacerbate MPX transmission risk in the human population. Regions or communities with a higher proportion of gbMSM individuals need greater public health attention. Tracing and quarantine (or "effective quarantine" by postexposure vaccination) of contacts with MPX cases in high-risk groups would have a significant effect on controlling the spreading. Also, monitoring for animal infections would be prudent.
为模拟猴痘（MPX）在大都市地区的传播情况，以评估可能爆发疫情的风险，并确定遏制病毒传播的基本公共卫生措施。动物宿主是人畜共患病建模的关键要素。我们采用“同一健康”方法，在考虑啮齿动物（如大鼠、小鼠、松鼠、花栗鼠等）等潜在动物宿主的情况下，对MPX病毒在人类中的传播进行建模，并强调其在包括男同性恋者和双性恋男性（gbMSM）在内的高风险群体中病毒的作用和传播。通过模型和敏感性分析，我们确定关键的公共卫生因素，并呈现不同传播假设下的情景。我们发现，如果高风险群体中的传播效率提高，MPX病毒可能从gbMSM高风险群体传播到更广泛的人群。然而，如果至少65%的有症状病例能够被隔离，并追踪和隔离其接触者，疫情爆发的风险可以大大降低。此外，动物宿主中的感染将加剧MPX在人群中的传播风险。gbMSM个体比例较高的地区或社区需要更多的公共卫生关注。追踪和隔离（或通过暴露后接种疫苗进行“有效隔离”）高风险群体中与MPX病例的接触者，对控制传播将产生显著效果。此外，监测动物感染情况是明智的。
