Shirov A A
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
Her Russ Acad Sci. 2022;92(4):536-543. doi: 10.1134/S1019331622040232. Epub 2022 Sep 6.
The main channels of influence of the new coronavirus infection pandemic on the economy are analyzed. The key features of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic are emphasized, the scale and depth of the economic decline largely depending on the actions of the authorities to restrict economic activity. It has been stated that as the pandemic crisis developed, the governments of the largest countries of the world adapted to its negative consequences for the economy, which was reflected in a decrease in the dependence of economic activity on the incidence of COVID-19. The effectiveness of economic support measures implemented in Russia and key countries of the world during the crisis is assessed. The failures of market self-regulation during the crisis, which led to a significant imbalance of supply and demand in world markets, are considered. Along with the success of the Russian government in reducing the negative impact of the pandemic on the economy, attention is drawn to the serious social and demographic damage that our country has suffered as a result of the pandemic. The main trends for compensating for losses are formed, and the medium- and long-term potential for the development of the Russian economy after the pandemic crisis is assessed. This article is an amended and updated version of the author's report at the Scientific Session of the RAS General Meeting on December 15, 2021.
分析了新冠病毒感染大流行对经济的主要影响渠道。强调了大流行引发的经济危机的关键特征，经济衰退的规模和深度在很大程度上取决于当局限制经济活动的行动。据称，随着大流行危机的发展，世界主要国家的政府适应了其对经济的负面后果，这体现在经济活动对新冠疫情发病率的依赖性降低。评估了俄罗斯和世界主要国家在危机期间实施的经济支持措施的有效性。考虑了危机期间市场自我调节的失灵，这导致了世界市场供需的严重失衡。在关注俄罗斯政府成功减轻大流行对经济的负面影响的同时，也提请注意我国因大流行而遭受的严重社会和人口损害。形成了弥补损失的主要趋势，并评估了大流行危机后俄罗斯经济发展的中长期潜力。本文是作者于2021年12月15日在俄罗斯科学院全体会议科学会议上所作报告的修订和更新版本。
