Ganichev N A, Koshovets O B
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418 Moscow, Russia.
Stud Russ Econ Dev. 2021;32(1):11-22. doi: 10.1134/S1075700721010056. Epub 2021 Feb 19.
Could the forced digitalization of multiple spheres of human life caused by the coronavirus pandemic lead to radical changes in the global and Russian economies? How and to what extent have ubiquitous lockdowns affected the digital transformation? The new model of the digital economy growth, formed during the ongoing crisis, actually contributes to the accelerated development of secondary digital infrastructure (platforms and artificial intelligence technologies) through the creation of mass markets, the noticeably higher consumption in the field of ICT services, and the redistribution of a significant part of resources from other sectors. However, this digital forcing, within the framework of which traditional industries were placed in a deliberately losing situation due to artificially created circumstances, is taking place during a fundamental structural crisis of the global economy. Therefore, unlike the technological revolutions of the past, this one will have serious objective limitations associated with narrowed opportunities for the development of the primary digital infrastructure, without which extensive development of digital services and markets is impossible. In addition, further implementation of the adopted model of building a digital economy, based on the collection and processing of big data, is fundamentally impossible outside globalization processes and implies a significant imbalance between the new "world technological center" (the United States and China, who, however, are in a state of trade war) and the "world technological periphery." For most other countries, including Russia, it means the need to "fit" into one of the two currently possible peripheral contours of the global digital transformation.
新冠疫情引发的人类生活多个领域的强制数字化会给全球和俄罗斯经济带来根本性变化吗?无处不在的封锁措施如何以及在多大程度上影响了数字转型?在当前危机期间形成的数字经济增长新模式,实际上通过创造大众市场、信息通信技术服务领域明显更高的消费以及将大量资源从其他部门重新分配,推动了二级数字基础设施(平台和人工智能技术)的加速发展。然而,这种数字强制——在这种情况下,传统产业因人为制造的环境而被置于明显不利的境地——是在全球经济的根本性结构危机期间发生的。因此,与过去的技术革命不同,这次革命将面临严重的客观限制,这些限制与一级数字基础设施发展机会的减少有关,没有一级数字基础设施,数字服务和市场的广泛发展是不可能的。此外,基于大数据的收集和处理而采用的数字经济建设模式,在全球化进程之外从根本上是无法进一步实施的,这意味着新的“世界技术中心”(美国和中国,然而它们正处于贸易战状态)与“世界技术外围”之间存在严重失衡。对包括俄罗斯在内的大多数其他国家来说,这意味着需要“融入”全球数字转型目前可能的两种外围形态之一。