Bilsborrow R E, McDevitt T M, Kossoudji S, Fuller R
Demography. 1987 May;24(2):191-210.
It is widely believed that structural variables such as inequitable land distribution, lack of rural employment opportunities, and rural-urban wage and amenity gaps influence population movements in developing countries. Yet quantitative evidence is scant. In this paper a multilevel model is used to investigate the effects of individual-, household-, and areal-level factors on rural-urban out-migration in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Data from a detailed survey carried out in 1977-1978 and from government macro-areal statistics are used to investigate factors affecting the out-migration of youths aged 12-25. Preliminary conclusions are presented on the usefulness of multilevel models in studying migration and policy implications for Ecuador.
人们普遍认为，土地分配不公、农村就业机会匮乏以及城乡工资和生活便利差距等结构变量会影响发展中国家的人口流动。然而，定量证据却很少。本文使用多层次模型来研究个人、家庭和地区层面的因素对厄瓜多尔山区农村人口向城市外流的影响。利用1977 - 1978年进行的详细调查数据以及政府宏观区域统计数据，来研究影响12 - 25岁年轻人外流的因素。文中给出了关于多层次模型在研究厄瓜多尔移民问题中的有用性以及政策含义的初步结论。
