Myroniuk Tyler W, White Michael J, Gross Mark, Wang Rebecca, Ginsburg Carren, Collinson Mark
(1) George Mason University, Department of Sociology and Anthropology.
(1) Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center, Department of Sociology.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2018 Dec;37(6):1079-1108. doi: 10.1007/s11113-018-9493-1. Epub 2018 Sep 18.
In a rural African context, the saying, "it takes a village to raise a child," suggests that community characteristics are substantially important in children's lives as they transition to adulthood. Are these contextual factors also related to youth migration? Demographers are uncertain about how community characteristics improve our understanding of an individual's propensity to migrate, beyond individual and household factors. In many low and middle-income country settings, youth become migrants for the first time in their lives to provide access to resources that their families need. We employ discrete-time event history models from the 20032011 Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa to test whether markers of development in a village are associated with the likelihood of youth and young adults migrating, distinguishing between becoming temporary and permanent migrants during this critical life cycle phase. We find that village characteristics indeed differentially predict migration, but not nearly as substantially as might be expected.
在非洲农村地区，有句谚语叫“养育一个孩子需要全村人的努力”，这表明在孩子向成年过渡的过程中，社区特征对他们的生活至关重要。这些背景因素也与青年移民有关吗？人口统计学家不确定社区特征如何能增进我们对个人移民倾向的理解，而不仅仅是个人和家庭因素。在许多低收入和中等收入国家的背景下，年轻人一生中首次成为移民，以便获取家庭所需的资源。我们运用来自南非农村地区2003 - 2011年阿金库尔健康与社会人口监测系统的离散时间事件史模型，来检验村庄发展指标是否与青年和年轻人移民的可能性相关，并区分在这个关键的生命周期阶段成为临时移民和永久移民的情况。我们发现，村庄特征确实对移民有不同程度的预测作用，但远没有预期的那么大。
