Sir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, 2412101, Acre, Israel.
Department of Mathematics, Bar Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Isr J Health Policy Res. 2022 Sep 12;11(1):33. doi: 10.1186/s13584-022-00541-w.
SARS-CoV-2 is an infectious virus, which has generated a global pandemic. Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate its population, inaugurating the program on December 20, 2020. The objective of the current study is to investigate the projected daily COVID19 mortality growth rate with higher median age and population size of cities under two scenarios: with and without the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccination against the SAR-COV2 virus.
This study employs a panel data-set. We follow the COVID19 mortality growth rate in each of the 173 Israeli cities and towns starting from March 21, 2020 (10 days after the first documentation of COVID19 cases in Israel) until September 21, 2021, where the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations were available starting from December 20, 2020.
Referring to the median age of municipal residents, findings suggest that the BNT162b2 Pfizer vaccinations attenuate the rise in anticipated daily mortality growth rate for cities and towns in which the median population age is 30 years old (the range in median age among the residents in the municipalities surveyed is 11-41 years). Moreover, referring to population size of cities, findings demonstrate that while under the scenario without vaccination, the daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to rise, under a comparable scenario with vaccination, daily mortality growth rate is anticipated to drop.
In crowded cities, where the median age is high, two perspectives of early and intensive public policy interventions are clearly required. The first perspective is extensive medical treatment, namely, extension of availability of medical physical and online services; dispensing designated medications; expansion of hospitalization facilities and information services particularly to susceptible populations. All measures will be taken with attention to age accessibility of these means. The second perspective is prevention via establishment of testing and vaccination complexes; elevation of dedicated health services, generating selective lockdowns; education for increasing awareness to social distancing, wearing masks and other preventive means.
SARS-CoV-2 是一种传染性病毒，已在全球范围内引发大流行。以色列是最早为其民众接种疫苗的国家之一，于 2020 年 12 月 20 日启动了该计划。本研究的目的是在两种情况下，即有和没有 BNT162b2 Pfizer 疫苗针对 SAR-COV2 病毒的情况下，研究城市人口中位数年龄较高和人口规模较大情况下预计的每日 COVID19 死亡率增长率。
本研究采用面板数据集。我们从 2020 年 3 月 21 日（以色列首次记录 COVID19 病例后的第 10 天）开始，对 173 个以色列城镇的 COVID19 死亡率增长率进行了跟踪，直到 2021 年 9 月 21 日，从 2020 年 12 月 20 日开始，BNT162b2 Pfizer 疫苗接种开始在这些城镇提供。
根据城市居民的中位数年龄，研究结果表明，BNT162b2 Pfizer 疫苗接种会减缓 30 岁人口中位数的城市和城镇预期每日死亡率增长率的上升（被调查城市居民的中位数年龄范围为 11-41 岁）。此外，根据城市人口规模，研究结果表明，在没有接种疫苗的情况下，预计每日死亡率增长率将会上升，而在类似的接种疫苗的情况下，每日死亡率增长率预计将会下降。
在人口密集、中位数年龄较高的城市，显然需要尽早采取广泛和密集的公共政策干预措施。第一个角度是广泛的医疗，即扩大医疗物理和在线服务的可及性；分发指定药物；扩大住院设施和信息服务，特别是针对易感人群。所有措施都将考虑到这些手段的年龄可及性。第二个角度是通过建立检测和接种综合设施进行预防；提升专门的卫生服务，实施有针对性的封锁；开展提高对社交距离、戴口罩和其他预防措施的认识的教育。
