Mahmud Mahreen, Riley Emma
University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
University of Washington, Seattle, WA USA.
Rev Econ Househ. 2023;21(1):19-36. doi: 10.1007/s11150-022-09625-7. Epub 2022 Sep 8.
We examine the response of rural Ugandan households to a large aggregate shock, the Covid-19 pandemic, during and one year after the first lockdown in March 2020. Using 6 rounds of phone surveys from 558 households in western Uganda, we find that household income recovery from the lockdown differs by whether households had a business pre-pandemic. After an initial sharp fall, the incomes of those without a business have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. However, the relatively better-off households with a business before the pandemic still have one-third lower income, due to sustained closure of businesses even after the end of the first lockdown restrictions. Additionally, business-owning households have 30% lower wealth one-year into the pandemic, driven by 44% lower assets, 45% drop in savings, and a 15 fold increase in net-borrowing, suggesting long-term damage. Our findings point to the need to support households who face dwindling finances to fall back on.
我们研究了乌干达农村家庭对2020年3月首次封锁期间及之后一年内出现的重大总体冲击——新冠疫情的应对情况。通过对乌干达西部558户家庭进行6轮电话调查，我们发现，家庭收入从封锁中恢复的情况因家庭在疫情前是否拥有生意而有所不同。在经历最初的大幅下降后，没有生意的家庭的收入已恢复到疫情前的水平。然而，疫情前相对富裕的有生意的家庭，即使在首次封锁限制结束后，由于企业持续关闭，收入仍比疫情前低三分之一。此外，在疫情爆发一年后，拥有企业的家庭财富减少了30%，其资产减少了44%，储蓄下降了45%，净借款增加了15倍，这表明造成了长期损害。我们的研究结果表明，需要支持那些面临资金减少而无以为继的家庭。
