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证据、概率与相对似真性。

Evidence, probability and relative plausibility.

作者信息

Aitken Colin, Taroni Franco, Bozza Silvia

机构信息

School of Mathematics, The University of Edinburgh, UK.

School of Criminal Justice, The University of Lausanne, Switzerland.

出版信息

Int J Evid Proof. 2022 Oct;26(4):309-324. doi: 10.1177/13657127221114508. Epub 2022 Jul 25.

DOI:10.1177/13657127221114508
PMID:36110308
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9465537/
Abstract

A comparison is made between probability and relative plausibility as approaches for the interpretation of evidence. It is argued that a probabilistic approach is capable of answering the criticisms of the proponents of relative plausibility. It is also shown that a probabilistic approach can answer the problem of overlapping where there is evidence that each side claims supports its theory of what happened.

摘要

本文对概率和相对似真性这两种证据解释方法进行了比较。文章认为，概率方法能够回应相对似真性支持者的批评。同时还表明，概率方法能够解决证据重叠问题，即双方都声称有证据支持其关于事件发生情况的理论。

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本文引用的文献

1
Why wasn't O.J. convicted? Emotional coherence in legal inference.
Cogn Emot. 2003 May;17(3):361-383. doi: 10.1080/0269993024400002.
2
The importance of distinguishing information from evidence/observations when formulating propositions.在提出主张时区分信息与证据/观察结果的重要性。
Sci Justice. 2015 Dec;55(6):520-5. doi: 10.1016/j.scijus.2015.06.008. Epub 2015 Jul 14.
3
Précis of bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning.《贝叶斯理性：人类推理的概率方法》概要
Behav Brain Sci. 2009 Feb;32(1):69-84; discussion 85-120. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X09000284.
4
On the reality of the conjunction fallacy.关于合取谬误的现实情况。
Mem Cognit. 2002 Mar;30(2):191-8. doi: 10.3758/bf03195280.
5
More on the hierarchy of propositions: exploring the distinction between explanations and propositions.关于命题层次结构的更多内容：探索解释与命题之间的区别。
Sci Justice. 2000 Jan-Mar;40(1):3-10. doi: 10.1016/S1355-0306(00)71926-5.
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A model for case assessment and interpretation.病例评估与解读模型。
Sci Justice. 1998 Jul-Sep;38(3):151-6. doi: 10.1016/S1355-0306(98)72099-4.
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Statistical modelling in specific case analysis.
Sci Justice. 1996 Oct-Dec;36(4):245-55. doi: 10.1016/S1355-0306(96)72610-2.