Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
Instituto Politécnico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro State University, Nova Friburgo, Brazil.
BMC Public Health. 2022 Sep 20;22(1):1781. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14155-z.
During 2020, there were no effective treatments or vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. The most common disease contention measures were social distance (social isolation), the use of face masks and lockdowns. In the beginning, numerous countries have succeeded to control and reduce COVID-19 infections at a high economic cost. Thus, to alleviate such side effects, many countries have implemented socioeconomic programs to fund individuals that lost their jobs and to help endangered businesses to survive.
We assess the role of a socioeconomic program, so-called "Auxilio Emergencial" (AE), during 2020 as a measure to mitigate the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Brazil. For each Brazilian State, we estimate the time-dependent reproduction number from daily reports of COVID-19 infections and deaths using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-like (SEIR-like) model. Then, we analyse the correlations between the reproduction number, the amount of individuals receiving governmental aid, and the index of social isolation based on mobile phone information.
We observed significant positive correlation values between the average values by the AE and median values of an index accounting for individual mobility. We also observed significantly negative correlation values between the reproduction number and this index on individual mobility. Using the simulations of a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-like model, if the AE was not operational during the first wave of COVID-19 infections, the accumulated number of infections and deaths could be 6.5 (90% CI: 1.3-21) and 7.9 (90% CI: 1.5-23) times higher, respectively, in comparison with the actual implementation of AE.
Our results suggest that the AE implemented in Brazil had a significant influence on social isolation by allowing those in need to stay at home, which would reduce the expected numbers of infections and deaths.
在 2020 年，针对 SARS-CoV-2 没有有效的治疗方法或疫苗。最常见的疾病控制措施是社交距离（社交隔离）、使用口罩和封锁。在开始时，许多国家成功地控制并降低了 COVID-19 的感染率，但代价是付出了高昂的经济成本。因此，为了减轻这些副作用，许多国家实施了社会经济计划，为失业人员提供资金，并帮助濒危企业生存。
我们评估了所谓的“紧急援助”（AE）社会经济计划在 2020 年作为减轻巴西冠状病毒病 2019（COVID-19）爆发的措施的作用。对于每个巴西州，我们使用类似于 SIR 的模型，根据每日 COVID-19 感染和死亡报告，估计与时间相关的繁殖数。然后，我们分析繁殖数、接受政府援助的人数以及基于移动电话信息的社会隔离指数之间的相关性。
我们观察到 AE 的平均值与个体流动性的中位数之间存在显著的正相关值。我们还观察到繁殖数与个体流动性指数之间存在显著的负相关值。使用类似于 SIR 的模型的模拟，如果 AE 在 COVID-19 感染的第一波中未运行，则与实际实施 AE 相比，感染和死亡的累计人数可能分别高 6.5（90%CI：1.3-21）和 7.9（90%CI：1.5-23）倍。
我们的结果表明，巴西实施的 AE 通过允许有需要的人呆在家里，对社会隔离产生了重大影响，这将减少预期的感染和死亡人数。
