Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine II, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg Medical Center, D-79106 Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany.
Praxis Prof. Dr. J. Borde & Kollegen, Gesundheitszentrum Oberkirch, Am Marktplatz 8, D-77704 Oberkirch, Germany.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 19;19(18):11830. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191811830.
Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher's Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). : Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.
蜱传脑炎（TBE）是一种潜在的危及生命的神经系统疾病，主要通过蜱传播。本研究的目的是分析在德国确定的 TBEV 微焦点的潜在统一环境模式。结果用于根据地质统计模型计算德国 TBEV 微焦点当前分布的概率。我们旨在考虑使用开放获取的流行病学、地理和气候数据源来确定在德国检测到的 TBEV 微焦点位置的环境特征的规格。我们使用两步地质统计方法，在第一步中，使用 Fisher 精确检验比较 56 个 TBEV 微焦点和覆盖德国的 3575 个采样点的控制或比较集之间的广泛环境变量的特征。在第二步中，我们选择最重要的变量，然后将它们用于 MaxEnt 分布模型，以计算覆盖德国整个地区的 TBEV 存在的高分辨率（400×400m）概率图。MaxEnt 预测模型的结果表明，多年实际蒸散量（27.0%）和多年炎热天数（22.5%）对我们的模型贡献最大。这两个变量之后是另外四个具有较低但仍很重要的解释性影响的变量：土地覆盖类别（19.6%）、多年最低空气温度（14.9%）、多年日照时间（9.0%）和与针叶林和混交林边界的距离（7.0%）。我们的发现基于具有已知感染史的定义明确的 TBEV 微焦点，以及近年来对病毒的反复确认，从而得出德国 TBEV 微焦点的深入高分辨率模型/地图。多年实际蒸散量（27%）和多年炎热天数（22.5%）在我们的模型中具有最大的解释力。结果可用于制定特定的区域预防措施和调查。
