Fundamental and Applied Research for Animal and Health (FARAH) Center, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium.
Department for Occupational Protection and Hygiene, Unit Biosafety, Biosecurity and Environmental Licences, University of Liege, 4000 Liege, Belgium.
Viruses. 2023 Mar 20;15(3):791. doi: 10.3390/v15030791.
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.
蜱传脑炎（TBE）是一种在欧亚大陆流行的病毒性疾病。该病毒主要通过蜱虫传播给人类，偶尔也通过食用未经巴氏消毒的奶制品传播。欧洲疾病预防控制中心报告称，近年来欧洲 TBE 的发病率有所上升，而且该病在新的地区也出现了。为了更好地理解这一现象，我们通过专家知识 elicitation 调查了人类 TBE 出现和发病率上升的驱动因素。我们列出了 59 个可能的驱动因素，分为八个领域，并邀请了 40 名欧洲专家：（i）为每个驱动因素分配一个分数，（ii）在每个领域内加权该分数，以及（iii）加权不同的领域，并为每个领域分配一个不确定性水平。为每个驱动因素计算了一个总体加权分数，并使用回归树分析将得分相当的驱动因素分为三个终端节点。得分最高的驱动因素是：（i）人类行为/活动的变化；（ii）饮食习惯或消费者需求的变化；（iii）景观的变化；（iv）湿度对病原体存活和传播的影响；（v）控制宿主和/或媒介的难度；（vi）温度对病毒存活和传播的影响；（vii）作为宿主或扩增宿主的野生动物组合/群体的数量；（viii）本地野生动物数量的增加；以及（ix）媒介蜱种的数量及其分布。我们的研究结果支持研究人员优先研究与 TBE 出现和发病率上升最相关的驱动因素。
