Xiong Chuanhe, Wang Guiling, Li Hengpeng, Su Weizhong, Duan Xuejun
Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China.
School of Geographic Science, Nantong University, Nantong, 226007, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jan;30(5):13837-13845. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23125-2. Epub 2022 Sep 23.
Climate change with global warming as the main feature associated with fossil energy use has been recognized as a threat to public health and welfare. Energy-related carbon emission reduction is a more serious challenge for BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) countries with rapid economic development. Examining key impact factors is necessary and helpful. This paper is the first study providing detailed country-by-country analyses aiming to identify the key drivers and inhibitors of energy-related carbon emission in 66 BRI countries with more systematic impact factors. The results show that: (1) Economic development (A), population (Ps), urbanization (Pu), and industrialization (Ss) are the key drivers for 52%, 26%, 11%, and 6% countries of BRI countries. Technological progress (T), energy consumption structure (E), and tertiary industry proportion (St) serve as key inhibitors for 65%, 17%, and 8% countries of BRI countries. (2) Different carbon emission reduction strategies should be formed on different geographical scales. At the international level, carbon emission reduction consensus should be reached and carbon emission reduction targets should be formulated. At the regional level of the Belt and Road Initiative, a carbon emission reduction cooperation fund should be established, and carbon emission reduction technologies and measures should be exchanged and data should be shared to promote the green development of the Belt and Road. At the national level, there should be carbon emission reduction policies reflecting national characteristics. At the local level, there should be specific carbon reduction measures in line with local conditions.
以全球变暖为主要特征、与化石能源使用相关的气候变化已被视为对公众健康和福祉的威胁。对于经济快速发展的“一带一路”国家而言，与能源相关的碳排放减少是一项更为严峻的挑战。审视关键影响因素很有必要且有所助益。本文是第一项研究，旨在对66个“一带一路”国家按国别进行详细分析，以更系统地找出与能源相关碳排放的关键驱动因素和抑制因素。结果表明：（1）经济发展（A）、人口（Ps）、城市化（Pu）和工业化（Ss）分别是52%、26%、11%和6%的“一带一路”国家的关键驱动因素。技术进步（T）、能源消费结构（E）和第三产业比重（St）分别是65%、17%和8%的“一带一路”国家的关键抑制因素。（2）应在不同地理尺度上形成不同的碳排放减少策略。在国际层面，应达成碳排放减少共识并制定碳排放减少目标。在“一带一路”区域层面，应设立碳排放减少合作基金，交流碳排放减少技术和措施并共享数据，以促进“一带一路”的绿色发展。在国家层面，应有反映国家特色的碳排放减少政策。在地方层面，应有符合当地情况的具体碳减排措施。
