School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
School of Physical Education, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 25;20(3):2164. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032164.
Since China has put forward the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, research on the BRI-related countries along the Belt and Road has sprung up. With the advent of the era of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, environmental regulation, as one of the important methods to control carbon emissions, is becoming increasingly prominent. Research on the impact pathway of environmental regulation of countries along the Belt and Road on carbon emissions has important implications for environmental protection and carbon emission reduction. Based on the panel data of 38 countries along the Belt and Road from 2005 to 2018, this research applied linear Tobit model and nonlinear dynamic panel regression model (PSTR) to evaluate the direct impacts on carbon emissions from environmental regulation of countries along the Belt and Road, and to analyze the different impacts of environmental regulation on carbon emissions in terms of technical innovation, industrial structure, and energy intensity. We found that (1) the direct impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions in the countries along the Belt and Road is positive, with slight differences between the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (2) when technical innovation is at a low level, environmental regulation promotes carbon emissions, while at a high level, environmental regulation significantly inhibits carbon emissions. (3) When industrial structure is at both a low and high level, environmental regulation inhibits carbon emissions, with a stronger degree of inhibition at a higher level. (4) When energy intensity is at a low level, environmental regulation promotes carbon emissions, while at a high level, environmental regulation inhibits carbon emissions. Accordingly, we suggest that countries along the Belt and Road follow the road of sustainable and low-carbon development, which should further enhance their focus on environment protection, improve their environmental awareness, and take environmental regulation measures rationally to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, relevant adjustments should be done on technical innovation, industrial structure, and energy intensity to achieve carbon emission reduction.
自 2013 年中国提出“一带一路”倡议以来，有关“一带一路”沿线国家的研究如雨后春笋般涌现。随着碳达峰碳中和时代的到来，环境规制作为控制碳排放的重要手段之一，日益凸显。研究“一带一路”沿线国家环境规制对碳排放的影响路径，对环境保护和碳减排具有重要意义。本研究基于 2005-2018 年“一带一路”沿线 38 个国家的面板数据，运用线性 Tobit 模型和非线性动态面板回归模型（PSTR），评估“一带一路”沿线国家环境规制对碳排放的直接影响，并从技术创新、产业结构和能源强度三个方面分析环境规制对碳排放的不同影响。结果表明：（1）“一带一路”沿线国家环境规制对碳排放的直接影响为正，其中丝绸之路经济带与 21 世纪海上丝绸之路存在微弱差异；（2）当技术创新水平较低时，环境规制促进碳排放，而当技术创新水平较高时，环境规制显著抑制碳排放；（3）当产业结构处于低水平和高水平时，环境规制均抑制碳排放，高水平时抑制程度更强；（4）当能源强度处于较低水平时，环境规制促进碳排放，而当能源强度处于较高水平时，环境规制抑制碳排放。因此，“一带一路”沿线国家应走可持续低碳发展道路，进一步加强环保意识，合理采取环境规制措施，减少碳排放，同时对技术创新、产业结构和能源强度进行相关调整，以实现碳减排。
