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“一带一路”倡议是否降低了非洲参与国的碳排放强度?

Does the belt and road initiative reduce the carbon emission intensity of African participating countries?

作者信息

Dusengemungu Didier-Robert, Liu Jinhao, Zhou Zhifang

机构信息

School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, China.

School of Resources and Environment of Hunan University of Technology and Industry, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Mar;30(11):29281-29299. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24187-y. Epub 2022 Nov 21.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-24187-y
PMID:36409408
Abstract

The ambition of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) became an integral part of carbon emission abatement. The BRI impact on African participating countries' battle against carbon emissions intensity is a contentious subject. Urbanization and industrialization are the main sources of CO emissions in Africa and the driving force in the BRI. Using data on variables from 2010 to 2019 in 54 African countries, applying Difference-in-differences model (DID) and Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-differences regression (PSM-DID), and robustness tests to investigate if the BRI's participation tends to reduce the carbon emissions intensity of African participating countries. This study finds that African countries' participation in the BRI minimizes the intensity of carbon emissions in those countries. Further analysis shows that low carbon development of BRI countries is more significant in countries that joined the BRI than those that did not join it. In addition, our results show that improving economic transformation such as the innovation in technology and industries' structures can boost the CO emission reduction technologies. These findings suggest that developing BRI collaboration with China will benefit the environment and African BRI participating countries' ability to achieve sustainable development. Our results further support the BRI's effect and recommend policy implications and methods for those countries' CO emission prevention and control actions.

摘要

“一带一路”倡议的目标成为了碳减排的一个组成部分。“一带一路”倡议对非洲参与国应对碳排放强度的影响是一个有争议的话题。城市化和工业化是非洲碳排放的主要来源,也是“一带一路”倡议的驱动力。利用2010年至2019年54个非洲国家的变量数据,应用双重差分模型(DID)和倾向得分匹配 - 双重差分回归(PSM - DID)以及稳健性检验,来研究参与“一带一路”倡议是否倾向于降低非洲参与国的碳排放强度。本研究发现,非洲国家参与“一带一路”倡议可降低这些国家的碳排放强度。进一步分析表明,“一带一路”国家的低碳发展在加入“一带一路”的国家中比未加入的国家更为显著。此外,我们的结果表明,改善经济转型,如技术创新和产业结构调整,可以促进碳排放减少技术。这些发现表明,发展与中国的“一带一路”合作将有利于环境以及非洲参与“一带一路”国家实现可持续发展的能力。我们的结果进一步支持了“一带一路”倡议的效果,并为这些国家的碳排放预防和控制行动推荐了政策含义和方法。

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