Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK.
Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2022 Dec;37(12):1067-1078. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.08.008. Epub 2022 Sep 21.
To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.
为了预测气候变化和直接人为影响下自然种群的灭绝风险，综合了解表型可塑性和适应性进化至关重要。迄今为止，关于可塑性在变化的环境中促进适应性反应的程度、时间和方式的证据是相互矛盾的。我们认为，明确考虑环境变化的三个关键组成部分——变化率、方差和时间自相关性，为可塑性对适应性进化的影响提供了一个统一的框架。这些环境组成部分分别对种群生存力所依赖的进化和生态过程产生独特的影响。利用这个框架，我们对自然种群中可塑性和适应性进化之间的相互作用产生了预期。该框架有可能提高在不断变化的世界中预测种群生存力的能力。
