Department of Economics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.
Department of Economics, Teerthanker Mahaveer University Moradabad Uttar Pradesh, Moradabad, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Oct;29(46):69213-69222. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-22150-5. Epub 2022 Aug 11.
The agriculture sector is a key driver of economic growth and provides employment opportunities across the globe generally. However, in today's world, agricultural product demand is more influenced by taste, prices, and nutritional value due to climatic variation. The study has analyzed the current situation grain productivity by using the data of farm inputs and major grain crops of Pakistan from (1960-2020). The study consists of a two-stage analysis in the first stage, the total factor productivity (TFP) variable is obtained by using the parametric Tornqvisit-Theil index output-input-aggregation method separately for each crop; rice, maize, and wheat. After that, the unit root test is used to check the stationarity and trend of the variables in the long run. Subsequently, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to check the existence of cointegration in the long run and short run among the variables. The results of the study disclosed that the consumption of rice has a positive relationship with its total factor productivity, but, wheat and maize have a negative long-run cointegration relationship with the respective productivities. The study results have shown that the consumption pattern of staple crops has substantially changed, due to climatic variation, and the current food consumption trend is revealing new dimensions and trends owing to variation in climate change and anthropogenic pressure which demands to adapt climate resilient farm practices.
农业部门是全球经济增长的主要驱动力，通常为全球提供就业机会。然而，在当今世界，由于气候变化，农产品的需求更多地受到口味、价格和营养价值的影响。本研究利用巴基斯坦（1960-2020 年）的农场投入和主要粮食作物数据，分析了当前粮食生产力的现状。该研究包括两阶段分析，在第一阶段，分别使用参数 Tornqvisit-Theil 指数投入-产出-聚合方法获得每种作物（水稻、玉米和小麦）的总要素生产率（TFP）变量；然后使用单位根检验来检查变量在长期内的平稳性和趋势。随后，应用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来检查变量在长期和短期内在协整关系。研究结果表明，水稻的消费与其总要素生产率呈正相关关系，但小麦和玉米的总要素生产率在长期内存在负协整关系。研究结果表明，由于气候变化，主食作物的消费模式发生了重大变化，当前的粮食消费趋势由于气候变化和人为压力的变化而揭示了新的维度和趋势，这要求适应具有气候适应能力的农业实践。
