Chen D Y, Yang X Y, Fan W L, Wang H X, Wang P, Hu M, Pan S Y, Huang Q, He Y Q
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China.
Zhonghua Zhong Liu Za Zhi. 2022 Sep 23;44(9):955-961. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112152-20211027-00790.
To analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in major Asian countries and forecast the burden of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. Data on disease burden of pancreatic cancer among global and major Asian countries from on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were collected to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, death and disability adjusted life years (DALY) by year, sex and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) was used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer in 2019 was used to compare by age, sex and region. ARIMA model was performed with R language to predict change of age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2029. From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.17/100 000 to 5.78/100 000, and the standardized death rate increased from 3.34/100 000 to 5.99/100 000. The increases exceeded other high-income Asia countries. In the past three decades, the standardized incidence, death and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in global have increased year by year. Among the major countries in Asia, China has the highest growth rate of disease burden (EAPC of standardized incidence rates=2.32%, 95% 2.10%-2.48% and EAPC of standardized death rate=2.25%, 95% 2.03%-2.42%). In addition, incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China are expected to continue on the rise between 2000 and 2029 by ARIMA model. Incidence rate is expected to increase 15.92% and death rate is expected to increase 15.86%. The standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China increase year by year with an increasing trend for the burden of disease. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to rise due to the increase and aging of the population. Preventive measures should be adopted to decrease the burden of the pancreatic cancer.
分析亚洲主要国家胰腺癌的疾病负担，并预测中国的胰腺癌负担，为胰腺癌的防控提供参考。收集全球及亚洲主要国家2019年全球疾病负担（GBD）中胰腺癌疾病负担的数据，通过每年、性别和社会人口学指数的发病率、死亡率及伤残调整生命年（DALY）的绝对数或标准化率来描述负担分布。采用估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）评估标准化率的趋势。用2019年胰腺癌危险因素所致死亡比例按年龄、性别和地区进行比较。用R语言运行自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型预测2020年至2029年胰腺癌年龄标准化发病率和死亡率的变化。1990年至2019年，中国胰腺癌标准化发病率从3.17/10万增至5.78/10万，标准化死亡率从3.34/10万增至5.99/10万。增幅超过其他高收入亚洲国家。在过去三十年中，全球胰腺癌标准化发病率、死亡率和DALY率逐年上升。在亚洲主要国家中，中国疾病负担增长率最高（标准化发病率的EAPC = 2.32%，95%CI 2.10% - 2.48%；标准化死亡率的EAPC = 2.25%，95%CI 2.03% - 2.42%）。此外，根据ARIMA模型，2020年至2029年中国胰腺癌发病率和死亡率预计将继续上升。发病率预计增长15.92%，死亡率预计增长15.86%。中国胰腺癌标准化发病率和死亡率逐年上升，疾病负担呈上升趋势。由于人口增长和老龄化，胰腺癌疾病负担预计将上升。应采取预防措施以减轻胰腺癌负担。
