School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.
School of Business, Akfa University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
PLoS One. 2022 Sep 28;17(9):e0275249. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275249. eCollection 2022.
Based on annual data for 31 emerging and developing economies in the period 2000-2020, this paper explores the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on episodes of extreme international capital inflows. Following previous researches, we identify episodes of surges and stops. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty can significantly increase the probability of surges and decrease the probability of stops in emerging and developing economies. The heterogeneity tests show that these effects vary with economic growth, financial development, the degree of economic globalization and global liquidity. Above effects are significant in the groups with higher economic growth, higher financial development, higher economic globalization and higher global liquidity. Further analyses show that as global economic policy uncertainty rises, its impact on surges and stops gradually declines. In addition, global economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the surge in advanced economies, which could confirm the above conclusion to a certain extent.
基于 2000 年至 2020 年期间 31 个新兴和发展中经济体的年度数据，本文探讨了全球经济政策不确定性对国际资本流入极端事件的影响。本文沿用了以往的研究方法，识别了资本流入的激增和骤停事件。结果表明，全球经济政策不确定性会显著增加新兴和发展中经济体资本流入激增的概率，降低骤停的概率。异质性检验表明，这些影响因经济增长、金融发展、经济全球化程度和全球流动性而有所不同。在经济增长更高、金融发展水平更高、经济全球化程度更高和全球流动性更高的组别中，这些效应更为显著。进一步的分析表明，随着全球经济政策不确定性的上升，其对激增和骤停的影响逐渐减弱。此外，全球经济政策不确定性对发达经济体资本流入激增有显著的负向影响，这在一定程度上验证了上述结论。
