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使用模糊层次分析法评估新冠疫情对埃及可持续发展目标指标的影响

Assessment of COVID-19 impact on sustainable development goals indicators in Egypt using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.

作者信息

Marzouk Mohamed, Elshaboury Nehal, Azab Shimaa, Megahed Alaa, Metawie Mahmoud

机构信息

Structural Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Egypt.

Construction and Project Management Research Institute, Housing and Building National Research Center, Giza, Egypt.

出版信息

Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022 Nov;82:103319. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103319. Epub 2022 Sep 28.

Abstract

COVID-19 significantly influences the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in both developed and developing countries. Within the 2030 agenda, Egypt is likely to face enormous negative ramifications from the virus spread. As a result, efficient control of the adverse repercussions of this virus is critical to achieving this objective. This research assesses indicators of specific SDGs in reflecting COVID-19 impact by conducting several questionnaire surveys among experts in Egypt. The scope of this research is limited to addressing poverty alleviation (SDG1), hunger abatement (SDG2), healthcare promotion (SDG3), sustainable economic growth (SDG8), and climate change mitigation (SDG13). The indicators are prioritized using the relative importance index, weighted aggregated sum product assessment technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. The rankings are finally aggregated using an approach based on the half-quadratic theory. The results reveal that the most significant indicators in reflecting the COVID-19 impact are the share of population living below the international poverty line, undernourishment prevalence, official health sector support, annual gross domestic product per capita growth rate, and number of disaster deaths for SDG1, SDG2, SDG3, SDG8, and SDG13, respectively. Recognizing and ranking the indicators could help decision-makers understand the behavior of SDG indicators in light of COVID-19. The research findings could assist policymakers in making informed decisions to reduce the pandemic effects and sustain achieving SDGs by 2030.

摘要

新冠疫情对发达国家和发展中国家的可持续发展目标均产生了重大影响。在2030年议程框架内,埃及可能会因病毒传播面临巨大的负面后果。因此,有效控制该病毒的不利影响对于实现这一目标至关重要。本研究通过在埃及专家中开展多项问卷调查,评估特定可持续发展目标的指标在反映新冠疫情影响方面的情况。本研究范围限于解决减贫(可持续发展目标1)、消除饥饿(可持续发展目标2)、促进医疗保健(可持续发展目标3)、可持续经济增长(可持续发展目标8)以及缓解气候变化(可持续发展目标13)等方面。使用相对重要性指数、逼近理想解排序法的加权聚合和积评估技术以及模糊层次分析法对指标进行优先级排序。最后采用基于半二次理论的方法对排名进行汇总。结果显示,在反映新冠疫情影响方面,最重要的指标分别是生活在国际贫困线以下人口的比例、营养不良发生率、官方卫生部门的支持、人均国内生产总值年增长率以及可持续发展目标1、可持续发展目标2、可持续发展目标3、可持续发展目标8和可持续发展目标13的灾害死亡人数。识别和排列这些指标有助于决策者了解可持续发展目标指标在新冠疫情背景下的表现。研究结果可协助政策制定者做出明智决策,以减少疫情影响并在2030年持续实现可持续发展目标。

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