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国家层面新冠疫情后可持续发展的复苏议程:构建模糊行动优先级曲面

Recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19 at the country level: developing a fuzzy action priority surface.

作者信息

Ranjbari Meisam, Shams Esfandabadi Zahra, Scagnelli Simone Domenico, Siebers Peer-Olaf, Quatraro Francesco

机构信息

Department of Economics and Statistics "Cognetti de Martiis", University of Turin, Lungo Dora Siena 100 A, 10153 Turin, Italy.

Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Turin, Italy.

出版信息

Environ Dev Sustain. 2021;23(11):16646-16673. doi: 10.1007/s10668-021-01372-6. Epub 2021 Apr 3.

Abstract

As a response to the urgent call for recovery actions against the COVID-19 crisis, this research aims to identify action priority areas post COVID-19 toward achieving the targets of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) within the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development launched by the United Nations (UN). This paper applies a mixed-method approach to map the post-COVID-19 SDGs targets on a fuzzy action priority surface at the country level in Iran, as a developing country, by taking the following four main steps: (1) using a modified Delphi method to make a list of the SDGs targets influenced by COVID-19; (2) using the best-worst method, as a multi-criteria decision-making tool, to weight the COVID-19 effects on the SDGs targets achievement; also (3) to weight the impact of the SDGs targets on the sustainable development implementation; and finally (4) designing a fuzzy inference system to calculate the action priority scores of the SDGs targets. As a result, reduction of poor people proportion by half (SDG 1.2), development-oriented policies for supporting creativity and job creation (SDG 8.3), end the pandemics and other epidemics (SDG 3.3), reduction of deaths and economic loss caused by disasters (SDG 11.5), and financial support for small-scale enterprises (SDG 9.3) were identified as the highest priorities for action, respectively, in the recovery agenda for sustainable development post COVID-19. The provided fuzzy action priority surface supports the UN's SDGs achievement and implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Iran. It also serves as a guideline to help the government, stakeholders, and policy-makers better analyze the long-term effects of the pandemic on the SDGs and their associated targets and mitigate its adverse economic, social, and environmental consequences.

摘要

作为对针对新冠疫情危机的复苏行动的紧急呼吁的回应,本研究旨在确定后新冠疫情时代的行动优先领域,以实现联合国发起的《2030年可持续发展议程》中的可持续发展目标(SDGs)。本文采用混合方法,通过以下四个主要步骤,在伊朗这个发展中国家的国家层面,将后新冠疫情时代的可持续发展目标映射到模糊行动优先表面上:(1)使用改进的德尔菲法列出受新冠疫情影响的可持续发展目标清单;(2)使用最佳最差法作为多标准决策工具,权衡新冠疫情对可持续发展目标实现的影响;(3)权衡可持续发展目标对可持续发展实施的影响;最后(4)设计一个模糊推理系统来计算可持续发展目标的行动优先分数。结果表明,将贫困人口比例减半(可持续发展目标1.2)、支持创造力和创造就业的发展导向政策(可持续发展目标8.3)、终结大流行和其他流行病(可持续发展目标3.3)、减少灾害造成的死亡和经济损失(可持续发展目标11.5)以及对小企业的财政支持(可持续发展目标9.3)分别被确定为后新冠疫情时代可持续发展复苏议程中最高的行动优先事项。所提供的模糊行动优先表面支持了联合国在伊朗实现可持续发展目标并实施《2030年可持续发展议程》。它还可作为指导方针,帮助政府、利益相关者和政策制定者更好地分析疫情对可持续发展目标及其相关指标的长期影响,并减轻其不利的经济、社会和环境后果。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/170e/8018902/f8435afc2ad2/10668_2021_1372_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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