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在公共卫生领域面临艰难决策时考虑模型效用的框架:决策者指南。

A framework for considering the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health: a guideline for policy-makers.

机构信息

Transport, Health and Urban Designed (THUD) Research Laboratory, Melbourne School of Design, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.

Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia.

出版信息

Health Res Policy Syst. 2022 Oct 8;20(1):107. doi: 10.1186/s12961-022-00902-6.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation, from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. Nor have models-developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information-ever been so central to the decision-making process. However, after nearly 3 years of experience with modelling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions, and modellers need to better understand the factors that will lead to successful model adoption and utilization. We present a three-stage framework for achieving these ends.

摘要

COVID-19 大流行使公共卫生、传染病和政策建模等多学科领域成为关注焦点。对于公共卫生措施及其影响的决策,以前从未像现在这样成为国际讨论的主题,从个人和社区层面到全球领导人层面都是如此。而且,模型的开发速度如此之快,而且通常在不完全了解信息的情况下进行,以至于模型在决策过程中从未如此重要。然而,在将近 3 年的模型使用经验之后,决策者需要更加自信地确定哪些模型在做出公共卫生决策时最有帮助,建模者需要更好地理解哪些因素将导致模型的成功采用和利用。我们提出了一个三阶段框架来实现这些目标。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/296d/9548118/95662cacaf47/12961_2022_902_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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