Fischer Kai, Reade J James, Schmal W Benedikt
Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Heinrich Heine University, Germany.
Department of Economics, University of Reading, United Kingdom.
Labour Econ. 2022 Dec;79:102281. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102281. Epub 2022 Oct 6.
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered economic shock waves across the globe. Exploiting a natural experiment, this paper estimates how being infected with the virus shapes individual-level productivity after having recovered. Studying the performance of professional athletes in Germany and Italy and applying a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that individual performance drops by around 6 percent after a previously infected athlete returns to the pitch. This striking deterioration remains persistent over time - amounting to 5% eight months after the infection. The effect increases with age and infection severity, and is spread disproportionally over the course of a match. We detect no productivity effects for other respiratory infections. We take these findings as first evidence that the pandemic might cause long-lasting effects on worker productivity and economic growth.
新冠疫情在全球引发了经济冲击波。本文利用一项自然实验,估计感染该病毒康复后对个人层面生产力的影响。通过研究德国和意大利职业运动员的表现,并采用交错差分设计,我们发现,之前感染过新冠的运动员重返赛场后,个人表现下降了约6%。这种显著的下降会随着时间持续存在——感染八个月后下降5%。这种影响随着年龄和感染严重程度的增加而增大,且在一场比赛过程中的分布不均衡。我们未发现其他呼吸道感染对生产力有影响。我们将这些发现视为疫情可能对劳动者生产力和经济增长造成长期影响的首个证据。