Legg K A, Bolwell C F, Gee E K, Gibson M J, Rogers C W
School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand.
School of Veterinary Science, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand.
Vet J. 2022 Nov;289:105915. doi: 10.1016/j.tvjl.2022.105915. Epub 2022 Oct 13.
This study aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for race-day horse falls in Thoroughbred jumps (hurdle and steeplechase) racing in New Zealand. Incidence rates for race-day horse falls in jumps races from 2005/6 - 2018/19 racing seasons (n = 13,648 race day starts) were calculated per 1000 starts. Univariable and multivariable analyses of race-, horse- and jockey-level risk factors for horse falls were conducted using Poisson regression in a generalised linear mixed model. The incidence rate of horse falls in jumps races was 42 (95 % confidence intervals [CI], 39 - 45) per 1000 starts. Horse falls in steeplechase races were 1.6 (95 % CI, 1.4 - 1.9) times more likely than hurdle races. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for horses falling at the last three jumps in comparison with the first three jumps was 3.1 (95 % CI, 2.8 - 3.5) for hurdle and 4.4 (95 % CI, 3.9 - 5.0) for steeplechase races. Greater jockey (age, P = 0.02) and horse experience (P = 0.001) were associated with a lower IRR of falls (P = 0.05). Longer races (P = 0.02) and those held in autumn compared to winter (IRR 1.4; 95 % CI, 1.0 - 1.8; P = 0.05) were associated with a higher rate of falling in steeplechase races. A regulatory change enhancing discretionary ability of jockeys to pull up 'in-race' was associated with reduced horse falls (IRR 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.51 - 0.82; P = 0.001). Pragmatic rule changes within the industry can have a positive effect on reducing risk and improving equine welfare.
本研究旨在确定新西兰纯种马障碍赛（跨栏赛和越野赛）中赛马在比赛日摔倒的发生率及风险因素。计算了2005/6至2018/19赛季障碍赛中赛马在比赛日摔倒的发生率（每1000次起跑的发生率，n = 13648个比赛日起跑次数）。使用广义线性混合模型中的泊松回归对赛马、马匹和骑师层面摔倒的风险因素进行单变量和多变量分析。障碍赛中赛马摔倒的发生率为每1000次起跑42次（95%置信区间[CI]，39 - 45）。越野赛中赛马摔倒的可能性比跨栏赛高1.6倍（95% CI，1.4 - 1.9）。与前三次跳跃相比，障碍赛中马匹在最后三次跳跃时摔倒的发生率比（IRR）为3.1（95% CI，2.8 - 3.5），越野赛为4.4（95% CI，3.9 - 5.0）。骑师年龄较大（P = 0.02）和马匹经验更丰富（P = 0.001）与摔倒的发生率比降低相关（P = 0.05）。赛程较长（P = 0.02）以及与冬季相比在秋季举行的比赛（发生率比1.4；95% CI，1.0 - 1.8；P = 0.05）与越野赛中较高的摔倒率相关。一项增强骑师在比赛中自行决定退赛能力的规则变更与赛马摔倒次数减少相关（发生率比0.65；95% CI，0.51 - 0.82；P = 0.001）。行业内切实可行的规则变更对降低风险和改善马匹福利可产生积极影响。
