两种新冠病毒毒株的竞争排斥
Competitive exclusion of two viral strains of COVID-19.
作者信息
Wang Wendi
机构信息
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China.
出版信息
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Dec;7(4):637-644. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.10.001. Epub 2022 Oct 11.
The pandemic COVID-19 has caused severe losses in public health and economy. One of the most difficult problems in prevention of the disease spread is the emergence of new variants. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated, which captures the main feature of COVID-19 spread with two viral strains. It is shown by analytical method that the model exhibits the competitive exclusion principle, where one viral strain with the larger basic reproduction number is dominant and the viral strain with the smaller reproduction number is excluded. The results are important for the deployment of prevention policy of COVID-19.
新冠疫情已在公共卫生和经济方面造成了严重损失。预防疾病传播最棘手的问题之一是新变种的出现。本文建立了一个数学模型，该模型刻画了两种病毒株的新冠传播主要特征。通过解析方法表明，该模型呈现竞争排斥原理，即基本再生数较大的病毒株占主导，而再生数较小的病毒株被排除。研究结果对新冠疫情防控政策的部署具有重要意义。
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