Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, University of Technology, Kolkata 700064, India.
Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology, Karaikal 609609, Puducherry, India.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2022 Apr 14;2022:2684055. doi: 10.1155/2022/2684055. eCollection 2022.
This paper is devoted to answering some questions using a mathematical model by analyzing India's first and second phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. A new mathematical model is introduced with a nonmonotonic incidence rate to incorporate the psychological effect of COVID-19 in society. The paper also discusses the local stability and global stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free equilibrium. The basic reproduction number is evaluated using the proposed COVID-19 model for disease spread in India based on the actual data sets. The study of nonperiodic solutions at a positive equilibrium point is also analyzed. The model is rigorously studied using MATLAB to alert the decision-making bodies to hinder the emergence of any other pandemic outbreaks or the arrival of subsequent pandemic waves. This paper shows the excellent prediction of the first wave and very commanding for the second wave. The exciting results of the paper are as follows: (i) psychological effect on the human population has an impact on propagation; (ii) lockdown is a suitable technique mathematically to control the COVID spread; (iii) different variants produce different waves; (iv) the peak value always crosses its past value.
本文致力于通过分析印度 COVID-19 疫情的第一和第二阶段，使用数学模型来回答一些问题。引入了一个新的数学模型，其中包含一个非单调的发病率，以纳入 COVID-19 在社会中的心理影响。本文还讨论了地方和全局平衡点的稳定性。基于实际数据集，利用提出的 COVID-19 模型评估了印度疾病传播的基本再生数。还分析了正平衡点的非周期解。使用 MATLAB 对模型进行了严格研究，以提醒决策机构防止出现任何其他大流行爆发或随后的大流行浪潮。本文显示了对第一波的出色预测，对第二波的预测非常准确。本文的激动人心的结果如下：（i）人口的心理影响对传播有影响；（ii）封锁是一种控制 COVID 传播的数学上合适的技术；（iii）不同变体产生不同的波；（iv）峰值总是超过其过去的值。
