Wang Wendi, Zhao Xiao-Qiang
Department of Mathematics, Southwest Normal University Chongqing, 400715, People's Republic of China.
Math Biosci. 2004 Jul;190(1):97-112. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2002.11.001.
An epidemic model is proposed to describe the dynamics of disease spread among patches due to population dispersal. We establish a threshold above which the disease is uniformly persistent and below which disease-free equilibrium is locally attractive, and globally attractive when both susceptible and infective individuals in each patch have the same dispersal rate. Two examples are given to illustrate that the population dispersal plays an important role for the disease spread. The first one shows that the population dispersal can intensify the disease spread if the reproduction number for one patch is large, and can reduce the disease spread if the reproduction numbers for all patches are suitable and the population dispersal rate is strong. The second example indicates that a population dispersal results in the spread of the disease in all patches, even though the disease can not spread in each isolated patch.
提出了一种流行病模型来描述由于种群扩散导致疾病在斑块间传播的动态过程。我们建立了一个阈值,当超过该阈值时疾病是一致持续存在的,低于该阈值时无病平衡点是局部吸引的,并且当每个斑块中的易感个体和感染个体具有相同的扩散率时是全局吸引的。给出了两个例子来说明种群扩散在疾病传播中起着重要作用。第一个例子表明,如果一个斑块的繁殖数很大,种群扩散会加剧疾病传播;如果所有斑块的繁殖数合适且种群扩散率很强,则种群扩散会减少疾病传播。第二个例子表明,即使疾病在每个孤立斑块中不能传播,但种群扩散会导致疾病在所有斑块中传播。