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多菌株传染病模型的控制策略。

Control Strategies for a Multi-strain Epidemic Model.

机构信息

School of Mathematical Sciences, CMA-Shanghai, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, People's Republic of China.

Department of Mathematics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2021 Nov 27;84(1):10. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00957-6.

Abstract

This article studies a multi-strain epidemic model with diffusion and environmental heterogeneity. We address the question of a control strategy for multiple strains of the infectious disease by investigating how the local distributions of the transmission and recovery rates affect the dynamics of the disease. Our study covers both full model (in which case the diffusion rates for all subgroups of the population are positive) and the ODE-PDE case (in which case we require a total lock-down of the susceptible subgroup and allow the infected subgroups to have positive diffusion rates). In each case, a basic reproduction number of the epidemic model is defined and it is shown that if this reproduction number is less than one then the disease will be eradicated in the long run. On the other hand, if the reproduction number is greater than one, then the disease will become permanent. Moreover, we show that when the disease is permanent, creating a common safety area against all strains and lowering the diffusion rate of the susceptible subgroup will result in reducing the number of infected populations. Numerical simulations are presented to support our theoretical findings.

摘要

本文研究了具有扩散和环境异质性的多菌株传染病模型。我们通过研究传输和恢复率的局部分布如何影响疾病的动态,来探讨针对传染病多菌株的控制策略。我们的研究涵盖了完整模型(在这种情况下,所有人群亚组的扩散率均为正)和 ODE-PDE 情况(在这种情况下,我们要求易感亚组完全封锁,并允许感染亚组具有正的扩散率)。在每种情况下,都定义了传染病模型的基本繁殖数,并表明如果该繁殖数小于一,则该疾病将在长期内被消除。另一方面,如果繁殖数大于一,则疾病将成为永久性的。此外,我们表明,当疾病成为永久性疾病时,创建针对所有菌株的共同安全区域并降低易感亚组的扩散率将导致感染人群的数量减少。提出了数值模拟以支持我们的理论发现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/a24f/8627176/847e44d307e1/11538_2021_957_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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