Zaidi Batool, Morgan S Philip
PhD candidate, Sociology Department, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Alan Feduccia Professor, Sociology Department and Director, Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Annu Rev Sociol. 2017 Jul;43:473-492. doi: 10.1146/annurev-soc-060116-053442. Epub 2017 May 19.
References to the second demographic transition (SDT) concept/theoretical framework have increased dramatically in the last two decades. The SDT predicts unilinear change toward very low fertility and a diversity of union and family types. The primary driver of these changes is a powerful, inevitable and irreversible shift in attitudes and norms in the direction of greater individual freedom and self-actualization. First, we describe the origin of this framework and its evolution over time. Second, we review the empirical fit of the framework to major changes in demographic and family behavior in the U.S., the West, and beyond. As has been the case for other unilinear, developmental theories of demographic/family change, the SDT failed to predict many contemporary patterns of change/difference. Finally, we review previous critiques and identify fundamental weaknesses of this perspective, and provide brief comparisons to selected alternative approaches.
在过去二十年里，对第二次人口转变（SDT）概念/理论框架的提及急剧增加。第二次人口转变预测了朝着极低生育率以及各种结合和家庭类型的单一线性变化。这些变化的主要驱动因素是态度和规范朝着更大的个人自由和自我实现方向发生的强大、不可避免且不可逆转的转变。首先，我们描述这个框架的起源及其随时间的演变。其次，我们审视该框架与美国、西方及其他地区人口和家庭行为的主要变化在实证上的契合度。与人口/家庭变化的其他单一线性发展理论的情况一样（译者注：此处原文有误，应为“与人口/家庭变化的其他单一线性、发展理论的情况一样”），第二次人口转变未能预测到许多当代的变化/差异模式。最后，我们回顾以往的批评意见，找出这一观点的根本弱点，并与选定的替代方法进行简要比较。 （译者注：原文存在一处语病，已在译文中括号内说明并修改）
