Assessing genetic and agronomic gains in rice yield in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis.

Research for development efforts for increasing rice yield in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have largely concentrated on genetic improvement and agronomy for more than 50 years. Here we perform the first meta-analysis to quantify genetic gain - yield increase through use of new variety and calculated by yield difference between new variety and variety popularly grown in the target site, and agronomic gain - difference in yield between improved agronomic practices and the control in SSA using 208 paired observations from 40 studies across 12 countries. Among the studies, 41 %, 34 %, and 25 % were from irrigated lowland, rainfed lowland, and rainfed upland rice, respectively. Seventy percent of the studies reported in this paper were conducted on research stations. In agronomic practices, inorganic fertilizer management practices accounted for 78 % of the studies, of which 48 % were nitrogen (N) management. In each study, we identified four types of varieties: check variety (VC), variety with highest yield in the control (VHC), variety with highest yield under improved agronomic practices (VHT), and variety with largest yield difference between improved agronomic practices and control (VHR). VHT was the same as VHC in 35 % of observations, whereas VHR and VHT were the same in 51 %. These indicate that it is possible to develop varieties adapted to different agronomic practices and high-yielding varieties tend to be responsive to improved agronomic practices. On average, total gain in yield with improved agronomic practices and VHT was 1.6 t/ha. Agronomic practice accounted for 75 % of the total variation in total yield gain with variety and agronomic practice by variety interaction responsible for 19 % and 6 %, respectively. Genetic gains in yield with VHC, VHT, and VHR were 0.7, 0.3, and -0.3 t/ha in control, and 0.4, 0.9, and 0.5 t/ha in improved agronomic practices. Agronomic gain in yield averaged 0.5, 0.8, 1.4, and 1.6 t/ha in VHC, VC, VHT, and VHR, respectively. Agronomic gain in yield of VHT was higher than genetic gain under improved agronomic practices in 54 % of observations. Agronomic gain was highest in irrigated lowland rice, followed by rainfed lowland rice. Higher agronomic gain in yield was also associated with larger difference in N application rate between improved agronomic practices and control. Whereas agronomic practices had larger contribution to total gain in yield than genetic improvement in this study, future assessment of agronomic and genetic gains in yield is warranted. Such assessment should focus more on rainfed rice systems, where agronomic gain was small, take into account genetic improvement rate over time and integrated agronomic practices rather than single intervention like nutrient management practice only, and be conducted in farmers' fields.