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个体风险判断的不确定性与脆弱性和有限的气候适应相关。

Uncertainty in individual risk judgments associates with vulnerability and curtailed climate adaptation.

机构信息

Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.

Faculty of Behavioral, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, The Netherlands.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2023 Jan 1;325(Pt A):116462. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116462. Epub 2022 Oct 19.

Abstract

Risk assessments are key for the effective management of potential environmental threats. Across probabilistic phenomena, climate change is an exemplar of paramount uncertainties. These uncertainties have been embraced in supporting governments' decisions; yet receive scarce attention when studying individual behavior. Analyzing a survey conducted in the USA, China, Indonesia, and the Netherlands (N=6242), we explore socio-economic, psychological, and behavioral differences between individuals who can subjectively assess risks, and those who are risk-uncertain. We find that risk-uncertain individuals are more likely to belong to societal subgroups classically considered as vulnerable, and have reduced capacities and intentions to adapt to hazards-specifically floods. The distinctions between risk-aware and risk-uncertain individuals indicate that ignoring differences in individuals' capacity to assess risks could amount to persistent vulnerability and undermine climate-resilience efforts. While we use floods emblematically, these finding have consequences for the standard practice of dropping or bootstrapping uncertain responses, irrespective of the hazard, with implications for environmental management.

摘要

风险评估对于有效管理潜在的环境威胁至关重要。在概率现象中,气候变化是不确定性的典型范例。这些不确定性在支持政府决策方面得到了认可;然而,在研究个人行为时却很少受到关注。通过分析在美国、中国、印度尼西亚和荷兰(N=6242)进行的一项调查,我们探讨了能够主观评估风险的个人与风险不确定的个人之间在社会经济、心理和行为方面的差异。我们发现,风险不确定的个人更有可能属于传统上被认为是脆弱的社会群体,并且在适应特定灾害(特别是洪水)方面的能力和意愿较低。风险意识和风险不确定的个人之间的区别表明,忽略个人评估风险能力的差异可能导致持续的脆弱性,并破坏气候适应能力。虽然我们以洪水为例,但这些发现对于在不考虑危害的情况下丢弃或引导不确定响应的标准做法具有后果,这对环境管理具有影响。

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