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重新调整一致性和变异性以最佳管理新西兰奥特亚罗瓦不断变化的洪水风险的必要性。

The need to reconfigure consistency and variability to best manage changing flood risks in Aotearoa-New Zealand.

作者信息

Serrao-Neumann Silvia, White Iain, Dean Samuel M, Paulik Ryan, Sleight Belinda, Stori Fernanda Terra, Wilson Matthew D, Lane Emily M

机构信息

Te Kura Aronui School of Social Sciences, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.

NIWA, Taihoro Nukurangi, Wellington, New Zealand.

出版信息

J R Soc N Z. 2023 Jun 6;54(4):473-490. doi: 10.1080/03036758.2023.2211777. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Flooding is Aotearoa-New Zealand's most frequent natural hazard, and there is high confidence that climate change is making extreme rainfall events more frequent and intense. Additionally, there are significant development pressures which could both increase the number of people and assets at risk and the flood hazard. To date, there is no publicly available consistent approach to accurately determine flood risk on a national scale, nor for how this may be changing; although there is a growing legislative requirement to provide quality information over multiple spatial scales. This paper draws on empirical data to gain insights on how to best manage changing flood risks in Aotearoa-New Zealand from the perspective of centrally organised entities. Findings confirm the need for a nationally consistent approach to flood risk management, better understanding of Aotearoa's communities and their vulnerability to floods, equitable access to quality information and decision-support tools, and better understanding of the economic impacts on differing communities, regions and places. The paper concludes that to achieve a flood-resilient Aotearoa, flood governance needs to be reconfigured to achieve national consistency in flood risk management whilst enabling targeted variability at the local scale.

摘要

洪水是新西兰最常见的自然灾害,而且人们高度确信气候变化正在使极端降雨事件变得更加频繁和强烈。此外,存在重大的发展压力,这可能会增加面临风险的人员和资产数量以及洪水灾害。迄今为止,尚无一种公开可用的一致方法来准确确定全国范围内的洪水风险,也无法确定其可能如何变化;尽管对在多个空间尺度上提供高质量信息的立法要求日益增加。本文利用实证数据,从中央组织实体的角度深入了解如何最好地管理新西兰不断变化的洪水风险。研究结果证实,需要一种全国一致的洪水风险管理方法,更好地了解新西兰的社区及其对洪水的脆弱性,公平获取高质量信息和决策支持工具,以及更好地了解对不同社区、地区和地方的经济影响。本文得出结论,为实现具有洪水抵御能力的新西兰,需要重新配置洪水治理,以在洪水风险管理方面实现全国一致性,同时在地方层面实现有针对性的差异化。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4a91/11459775/6ea3d1dcc5a4/TNZR_A_2211777_F0001_OC.jpg

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