School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, PR China.
School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, PR China; Hubei Science and Technology Innovation and Economic Development Research Center (STIED), Wuhan, 430070, PR China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jan 1;325(Pt A):116458. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116458. Epub 2022 Oct 20.
The Chinese government has declared a determination at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will improve its independent contribution and adopt more powerful measures to peak the carbon emissions before 2030. However, such strict implementation of carbon reduction policies is bound to bring the cost of sacrificing economic development. In such a context, this paper tries to use shadow price to measure the average social cost of emission reduction, marginal abatement cost to depict the pressure to reduce carbon emissions based on non-radial distance function, and provides an optimal scheme for provincial emission reduction to minimize the national cost of emission reduction based on variable-coefficient model. Results show that: First, the average value of shadow price is 15.91 and varies widely among regions, which means on average reducing one unit of carbon emissions will sacrifice 15.914 yuan RMB of economic output, and there exists possibility of carbon transactions across regions; Second, on the one hand, marginal abatement cost of carbon emission for most regions presents an upward tendency over time, which means greater economic costs have to be sacrificed with economic development in the future; On the other hand, marginal abatement cost is much higher in regions with high economic level than that in the economically undeveloped areas, which indicates reducing carbon emissions is becoming increasingly difficult and would pay more economical cost in economically developed regions; Third, the optional allocation scheme of CO2 reduction derived from this research is better than administrative ways of Grandfathering and Benchmarking in terms of minimizing emission reduction cost. Results of this paper indicate that larger carbon trading market can be implemented in China to economically fulfill the commitment of peaking carbon emissions.
中国政府在第 75 届联合国大会上宣布了一项决心，即中国将提高自主贡献力度，采取更有力的措施，力争在 2030 年前实现碳达峰。然而，如此严格执行碳减排政策，势必会带来牺牲经济发展的成本。在这种背景下，本文试图利用影子价格衡量减排的平均社会成本，利用非径向距离函数描述基于边际减排成本的碳减排压力，并基于变系数模型为各省提供减排的最优方案，以最小化国家减排成本。结果表明：第一，影子价格的平均值为 15.91，且地区间差异较大，这意味着平均减少一单位碳排放将牺牲 15.914 元人民币的经济产出，且存在跨地区碳交易的可能性；第二，一方面，大多数地区的碳减排边际成本随着时间的推移呈上升趋势，这意味着未来随着经济发展，将需要牺牲更大的经济成本；另一方面，经济水平较高地区的边际减排成本远高于经济欠发达地区，这表明减排工作在经济发达地区变得越来越困难，需要付出更高的经济成本；第三，与祖父制和基准制等行政手段相比，本研究得出的 CO2 减排可选配置方案在降低减排成本方面效果更好。本文的研究结果表明，中国可以实施更大规模的碳交易市场，以经济的方式履行碳达峰承诺。
