School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, 730000, China.
Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Jun 15;312:114925. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114925. Epub 2022 Mar 30.
To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, China has committed to reducing its national carbon emission intensity, which is a measure of carbon dioxide produced per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), by 65% by 2030 compared with the level in 2005. The government is pursuing corresponding abatement initiatives to achieve this goal. Coupling the physical data of sectoral energy inputs and emissions with a mixed exogenous/endogenous input-output model, this study first projected the carbon emissions in 2030 under a business-as-usual baseline and then investigated the potential economic effects of the "command-and-control" approach for reducing carbon emissions by limiting production capacity and strengthening forest carbon sink management. Three carbon abatement scenarios were evaluated from the perspectives of social equity, abatement efficiency, and forest carbon sinks. Our results indicated that, under the 2030 carbon emission goal, the GDP in China would decline by 17.17-41.26 trillion yuan (equivalent to a marginal abatement cost of 2315-5387 yuan per ton of carbon dioxide reduction), depending on different policy initiatives. The policy of carbon reduction for high-emission sectors only is more cost-effective and economically efficient and has resulted in fewer negative economic impacts than the policy of requiring all economic sectors to do so. Asking high-carbon emission industries to undertake carbon abatement can further reduce national carbon emission intensity. Additionally, promoting forest carbon sinks as an abatement initiative also demonstrates substantial economic benefits for society.
为了减少温室气体排放，中国承诺到 2030 年，与 2005 年相比，单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放将比 2005 年下降 65%。政府正在推行相应的减排措施来实现这一目标。本研究采用混合外生/内生投入产出模型，将部门能源投入和排放的物理数据与模型相结合，首先预测了在基准情景下 2030 年的碳排放，然后研究了通过限制生产能力和加强森林碳汇管理来减少碳排放的“命令与控制”方法的潜在经济影响。从社会公平、减排效率和森林碳汇的角度评估了三个碳减排情景。研究结果表明，在中国的 2030 年碳减排目标下，中国 GDP 将下降 17.17-41.26 万亿元（相当于每吨二氧化碳减排边际减排成本为 2315-5387 元），这取决于不同的政策措施。对高排放部门进行碳减排的政策比要求所有经济部门都进行碳减排的政策更具成本效益和经济效率，对经济的负面影响也更小。要求高碳排放产业承担减排任务，可以进一步降低国家的碳强度。此外，作为减排措施之一，促进森林碳汇也为社会带来了显著的经济效益。
