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带最优控制的 SARS-CoV-2 传播动力学的非均匀理论模型。

A patchy theoretical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 with optimal control.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.

Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, Box MP 167 Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 25;12(1):17840. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21553-1.

Abstract

Short-term human movements play a major part in the transmission and control of COVID-19, within and between countries. Such movements are necessary to be included in mathematical models that aim to assist in understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. A two-patch basic mathematical model for COVID-19 was developed and analyzed, incorporating short-term human mobility. Here, we modeled the human mobility that depended on its epidemiological status, by the Lagrangian approach. A sharp threshold for disease dynamics known as the reproduction number was computed. Particularly, we portrayed that when the disease threshold is less than unity, the disease dies out and the disease persists when the reproduction number is greater than unity. Optimal control theory was also applied to the proposed model, with the aim of investigating the cost-effectiveness strategy. The findings were further investigated through the usage of the results from the cost objective functional, the average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER), and then the infection averted ratio (IAR).

摘要

短期的人类活动在新冠病毒的传播和控制中起着重要作用,无论是在国家内部还是国家之间。这些活动对于纳入旨在帮助理解新冠病毒传播动态的数学模型是必要的。本文开发并分析了一个包含短期人类流动的两斑块基本新冠病毒数学模型。在这里,我们通过拉格朗日方法对依赖于其流行病学状态的人类流动进行建模。计算了一个称为繁殖数的疾病动力学的尖锐阈值。特别是,我们描述了当疾病阈值小于 1 时,疾病就会消失,而当繁殖数大于 1 时,疾病就会持续存在。还应用最优控制理论来研究提出的模型,以研究成本效益策略。通过使用成本目标函数、平均成本效益比 (ACER) 和避免感染率 (IAR) 的结果,进一步研究了这些发现。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7014/9596721/38275509ade2/41598_2022_21553_Fig3_HTML.jpg

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