Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, Canada.
Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 29;13(1):10546. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-37192-z.
Human mobility has played a critical role in the spread of COVID-19. The understanding of mobility helps in getting information on the acceleration or control of the spread of disease. The COVID-19 virus has been spreading among several locations despite all the best efforts related to its isolation. To comprehend this, a multi-patch mathematical model of COVID-19 is proposed and analysed in this work, where-in limited medical resources, quarantining, and inhibitory behaviour of healthy individuals are incorporated into the model. Furthermore, as an example, the impact of mobility in a three-patch model is studied considering the three worst-hit states of India, i.e. Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, as three patches. Key parameters and the basic reproduction number are estimated from the available data. Through results and analyses, it is seen that Kerala has a higher effective contact rate and has the highest prevalence. Moreover, if Kerala is isolated from Maharashtra or Tamil Nadu, the number of active cases will increase in Kerala but reduce in the other two states. Our findings indicate that the number of active cases will decrease in the high prevalence state and increase in the lower prevalence states if the emigration rate is higher than the immigration rate in the high prevalence state. Overall, proper travel restrictions are to be implemented to reduce or control the spread of disease from the high-prevalence state to other states with lower prevalence rates.
人类流动性在 COVID-19 的传播中发挥了关键作用。对流动性的理解有助于获取有关疾病加速或控制传播的信息。尽管采取了所有与隔离相关的最佳措施，但 COVID-19 病毒仍在多个地点传播。为了理解这一点，本工作提出并分析了 COVID-19 的多补丁数学模型，其中将有限的医疗资源、隔离和健康个体的抑制行为纳入模型。此外，作为一个例子，考虑到印度受影响最严重的三个邦（喀拉拉邦、马哈拉施特拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦），在三个补丁模型中研究了流动性的影响。从可用数据中估计了关键参数和基本繁殖数。通过结果和分析，我们可以看到喀拉拉邦的有效接触率更高，患病率也最高。此外，如果将喀拉拉邦与马哈拉施特拉邦或泰米尔纳德邦隔离，喀拉拉邦的活跃病例数将会增加，但其他两个邦的活跃病例数将会减少。我们的研究结果表明，如果高患病率州的移民率高于低患病率州的移民率，那么活跃病例数将在高患病率州减少，而在低患病率州增加。总的来说，需要实施适当的旅行限制，以减少或控制疾病从高患病率州向其他患病率较低的州传播。
