Bongaarts J
Stud Fam Plann. 1984 Jul-Aug;15(4):184-90.
This report describes and applies a procedure for estimating the increase in contraceptive prevalence that would have to occur to achieve specified future reductions in a population's fertility. This target-setting methodology is based on a previously developed analytic model for the relationship between fertility and its proximate determinants. The basic aggregate version of the estimation procedure, which is described in detail, requires relatively few input data, but it allows changes in the mix of contraceptive methods in future years. In extended versions of the model, age specificity and adjustments for given trends in the proximate determinants other than contraceptive use are introduced.
本报告描述并应用了一种程序，用于估计为实现特定的未来人口生育率降低，避孕普及率必须提高的幅度。这种目标设定方法基于先前开发的一种分析模型，该模型用于描述生育率与其直接决定因素之间的关系。文中详细描述的估计程序的基本汇总版本所需的输入数据相对较少，但它允许未来几年避孕方法组合的变化。在该模型的扩展版本中，引入了年龄特异性以及对除避孕使用之外的其他直接决定因素的给定趋势的调整。
