Blackman Allen, Bonilla Jorge A, Villalobos Laura
Climate and Sustainable Development Sector, Inter-American Development Bank, USA.
Department of Economics, Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia.
J Environ Econ Manage. 2023 Jan;117:102749. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102749. Epub 2022 Oct 25.
In cities around the world, COVID-19 lockdowns have significantly improved outdoor air quality. Even if only temporary, these improvements could have longer-lasting effects by making chronic air pollution more salient and boosting political pressure for change. To that end, it is important to develop objective estimates of both the air quality improvements associated with lockdowns and the benefits they generate. We use panel data econometric models to estimate the effect of Bogotá's 16-month lockdown on PM and NO pollution, epidemiological models to simulate the effect of reductions in these pollutants on long- and short-term mortality, and benefit transfer methods to value the avoided mortality. We find that on average, Bogotá's lockdown cut PM pollution by 15% and NO pollution by 21%. However, the magnitude of these effects varied considerably over time and across the city's neighborhoods. Equivalent permanent reductions in these pollutants would reduce long-term premature deaths from air pollution by 23% each year, a benefit valued at $1 billion annually. Finally, we estimate that if they occurred , the temporary reductions in pollutant concentrations in 2020-2021 due to Bogotá's lockdown would have cut short-term deaths from air pollution by 19%, a benefit valued at $244 million.
在世界各地的城市中，新冠疫情封锁措施显著改善了室外空气质量。即便只是暂时的改善，这些变化也可能产生更持久的影响，因为它们使长期存在的空气污染问题更加突出，并加大了推动变革的政治压力。为此，对与封锁相关的空气质量改善及其带来的益处进行客观评估十分重要。我们使用面板数据计量经济模型来估算波哥大长达16个月的封锁措施对可吸入颗粒物（PM）和氮氧化物（NO）污染的影响，运用流行病学模型来模拟这些污染物减少对长期和短期死亡率的影响，并采用效益转移方法来评估避免的死亡所带来的价值。我们发现，平均而言，波哥大的封锁措施使可吸入颗粒物污染减少了15%，氮氧化物污染减少了21%。然而，这些影响的程度在不同时间和全市各街区之间差异很大。这些污染物的同等永久性减少将使每年因空气污染导致的长期过早死亡人数减少23%，这一益处的价值为每年10亿美元。最后，我们估计，如果出现这种情况，2020 - 2021年因波哥大的封锁措施导致的污染物浓度暂时降低，将使因空气污染导致的短期死亡人数减少19%，这一益处的价值为2.44亿美元。
