Predicting vaccine effectiveness against invasive pneumococcal disease in children using immunogenicity data.

The strength of the immune response, as measured by antibody concentrations, varies between pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). Linking immunogenicity and effectiveness is necessary to assess whether changes in immune response from currently recommended PCVs to next-generation vaccines could impact effectiveness. Simulated reverse cumulative distribution curves were generated using published serotype-specific IgG concentrations with placebo or PCV7. This was combined with the published estimates of serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness of PCV7 against invasive pneumococcal disease to estimate the protective antibody concentration for each serotype in PCV7. Then, based on the published serotype-specific IgG concentrations in PCV13 recipients, reverse cumulative distribution curves were generated for the serotypes shared between PCV13 and PCV7. These estimated protective antibody concentration values were then used to predict the vaccine effectiveness of PCV13. The results were compared to published aggregate values for vaccine effectiveness. The aggregate median predicted vaccine effectiveness values were similar to previously reported observed values for the United Kingdom (93% versus 90%), Australia (71% versus 70%), and Germany (91% versus 90%). These results demonstrate that IgG concentrations of next-generation PCVs can be used to generate reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness for serotypes shared with established PCVs.