Zhou Min, Guo Wei
University of Victoria.
Nanjing University.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2023 Mar;77(1):123-140. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2134579. Epub 2022 Nov 8.
Using survey data collected from Hubei province, China's Covid-19 epicentre, in August 2020, this study examines how fertility intentions of Chinese citizens changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. We consider not only whether people changed their fertility plans due to Covid-19 but also distinguish three types of change: bringing forward ('sooner'), postponing ('later'), and abandoning ('never') planned fertility. Over half of those who planned to have a child intended to change their fertility plans due to Covid-19. Younger individuals, those of non-Han ethnicities, urban residents, those with one child already, and those with ever-infected family members were more likely to change their fertility plans. While the effects of some characteristics seem to be short term, other characteristics such as age and number of children show more consequential influences. Older individuals and those planning their second child were particularly prone to abandoning their childbearing plans due to Covid-19. The pandemic may thus complicate China's latest efforts to boost its low fertility.
本研究利用2020年8月在中国新冠疫情中心湖北省收集的调查数据，考察了新冠疫情期间中国公民的生育意愿是如何变化的。我们不仅考虑人们是否因新冠疫情而改变生育计划，还区分了三种类型的变化：提前（“更快”）、推迟（“更晚”）和放弃（“不再”）计划内生育。超过一半计划要孩子的人打算因新冠疫情改变生育计划。年轻人、少数民族、城市居民、已有一个孩子的人以及家庭成员曾感染过的人更有可能改变生育计划。虽然某些特征的影响似乎是短期的，但其他特征，如年龄和子女数量，显示出更重要的影响。老年人和计划生二胎的人尤其容易因新冠疫情而放弃生育计划。因此，这场疫情可能会使中国最近为提高低生育率所做的努力变得更加复杂。
