Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Department of Information Management, Hunan Provincial Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China.
J Glob Health. 2023 Jul 14;13:04072. doi: 10.7189/jogh.13.04072.
On May 31, 2021, the Chinese authorities announced that couples can have up to three children, aiming to stimulate a rise in fertility levels. However, there is limited research on second and third birth intentions of the childbearing-age population under China's three-child policy, and the existing results are inconsistent.
A cross-sectional survey was performed in Central China from June to August 2022. A total of 13 479 respondents aged 20-49 were enrolled in the study through a multi-stage sampling method. Data on the intentions to have a second or third child were collected using anonymized questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess fertility intentions. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations between fertility intentions and the related factors.
Among families with a single child, 29.7% (1444 / 4859) of the respondents intended to have a second child, while among two-child families, 10.6% (750 / 7056) respondents intended to have a third child. Overall, participants indicated that the ideal number of children was 1.85 ± 0.52. The age-specific fertility intentions of the one-child families were always higher than those of two-child families; however, based on couples' age groups, the number of ideal children reported by two-child families was always higher than that of one-child families. Fertility intentions were influenced by the respondents' gender, age, residence, marital status, educational level, average working time, childcare support, marital satisfaction, accessibility of educational resources, health condition of both spouses, loan situation, size of living house and the gender of the first child or second child.
The general prevalence of the second and third birth intention of the childbearing-age population in Central China is not high. To increase the birth rate, it is necessary to create a favourable fertility context and offer supportive measures.
2021 年 5 月 31 日，中国政府宣布夫妻双方最多可生育三个子女，以刺激生育率上升。然而，对于中国三孩政策下育龄人群的二胎和三胎生育意愿，目前研究较少，且已有研究结果不一致。
2022 年 6 月至 8 月，在中国中部地区进行了一项横断面调查。采用多阶段抽样方法，共纳入 13479 名 20-49 岁的受访者。使用匿名问卷收集关于生育二胎和三胎意愿的数据。采用描述性统计评估生育意愿。采用多因素 logistic 回归分析评估生育意愿与相关因素的关系。
在仅有一个孩子的家庭中，29.7%（1444/4859）的受访者有生育二胎的意愿，而在有两个孩子的家庭中，10.6%（750/7056）的受访者有生育三胎的意愿。总体而言，参与者表示理想的孩子数量为 1.85±0.52。仅有一个孩子的家庭的特定年龄生育意愿始终高于有两个孩子的家庭；但根据夫妻的年龄组，有两个孩子的家庭报告的理想孩子数量始终高于仅有一个孩子的家庭。生育意愿受到受访者性别、年龄、居住地、婚姻状况、教育水平、平均工作时间、育儿支持、婚姻满意度、教育资源可及性、夫妻健康状况、贷款情况、住房面积大小以及第一个孩子或第二个孩子的性别等因素的影响。
中国中部地区育龄人群的二胎和三胎生育意愿总体不高。为了提高出生率，有必要创造有利的生育环境并提供支持措施。
