Departamento de Ginecologia e Obstetrícia, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
Braz J Med Biol Res. 2022 Nov 4;55:e12109. doi: 10.1590/1414-431X2022e12109. eCollection 2022.
PREDICT is a tool designed to estimate the benefits of adjuvant therapy and the overall survival of women with early breast cancer. The model uses clinical, histological, and immunohistochemical variables. This study aimed to evaluate the model's performance in a Brazilian population. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the PREDICT model to estimate overall survival (OS) in five and ten years of follow-up in a cohort of 873 women with early breast cancer diagnosed from January 2001 to December 2016. A total of 743 patients had estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and 130 had ER-negative tumors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66-0.78) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.61-0.72) at ten years for women with ER-positive tumors. The AUC was 0.72 (95%CI: 0.62-0.81) at five years and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.54-0.77) at ten years for women with ER-negative tumors. The predicted survival in ER-positive tumors was 91.0% (95%CI: 90.2-91.6%) at five years and 79.3% (95%CI: 77.7-81.0%) at ten years, and the observed survival 90.7% (95%CI: 88.6-92.9%) and 77.2% (95%CI: 73.4-81.4%), respectively. The predicted survival in ER-negative tumors was 84.5% (95%CI: 82.5-86.6%) at five years and 75.0% (95%CI: 71.6-78.5%) at ten years, and the observed survival 76.3% (95%CI: 69.1-84.3%) and 67.9% (95%CI: 58.6-78.6%), respectively. In conclusion, PREDICT was accurate to estimate OS in women with ER-positive tumors and overestimated the OS in women with ER-negative tumors.
PREDICT 是一种旨在估计辅助治疗获益和早期乳腺癌女性总生存的工具。该模型使用临床、组织学和免疫组织化学变量。本研究旨在评估该模型在巴西人群中的表现。我们评估了 PREDICT 模型在 873 例 2001 年 1 月至 2016 年 12 月期间诊断的早期乳腺癌女性中估计 5 年和 10 年总生存（OS）的区分度和校准度。共有 743 例患者的雌激素受体（ER）阳性，130 例患者的 ER 阴性肿瘤。ER 阳性肿瘤患者 5 年和 10 年的接受者操作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.72（95%CI：0.66-0.78）和 0.67（95%CI：0.61-0.72）。ER 阴性肿瘤患者 5 年和 10 年的 AUC 为 0.72（95%CI：0.62-0.81）和 0.67（95%CI：0.54-0.77）。ER 阳性肿瘤患者 5 年和 10 年的预测生存率分别为 91.0%（95%CI：90.2-91.6%）和 79.3%（95%CI：77.7-81.0%），而观察生存率分别为 90.7%（95%CI：88.6-92.9%）和 77.2%（95%CI：73.4-81.4%）。ER 阴性肿瘤患者 5 年和 10 年的预测生存率分别为 84.5%（95%CI：82.5-86.6%）和 75.0%（95%CI：71.6-78.5%），而观察生存率分别为 76.3%（95%CI：69.1-84.3%）和 67.9%（95%CI：58.6-78.6%）。总之，PREDICT 可以准确地估计 ER 阳性肿瘤患者的 OS，并且高估了 ER 阴性肿瘤患者的 OS。
