Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Knoxville, TN, USA.
Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA.
Commun Biol. 2022 Nov 10;5(1):1213. doi: 10.1038/s42003-022-04131-z.
Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species' range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population's phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.
气候变化对物种分布产生了深远的影响，可能正在改变遗传变异在景观中的分布。维持种群遗传多样性对于面临快速环境变化的物种的生存至关重要，而变异的丧失将进一步导致生态和进化的变化。我们使用了在共同条件下生长的来自三个地理隔离的 Populus angustifolia 种群的 400 个基因型的春季叶片展开物候特征值，以及堆叠物种分布模型，来提出以下问题：（a）气候变化将如何改变 P. angustifolia 物种范围内以及种群内的物候变异；（b）未来气候条件下，种群间和种群内的物候变异分布是否会趋同（变得更加相似）？模型预测，在物种范围内的 20-25%的景观上，未来气候情景下的物候变异将净损失，而尾端种群的损失则高达 47%的景观。我们的模型还预测，随着时间的推移，种群的物候特征分布将变得更加相似。这种堆叠分布模型方法可以识别出预计将经历最大遗传功能性状变异损失的区域，以及可能成为未来遗传气候避难所的优先保护区域。
