School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China.
China Railway Shi Dai Architectural Design Institute Co., Ltd., Wuhu 241000, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 23;19(21):13768. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192113768.
Rapid urbanization in mega-urban agglomerations disturbs the balance of carbon storage supply and demand (CSD) and constrains the achievement of sustainable development goals. Here, we developed a socio-ecological system (SES) framework coupled with ecosystem services (ES) cascade and DPSIR model to systematically analyze the impacts and responses of urbanization affecting CSD. We quantified urbanization and CSD using multi-source remote sensing data, such as land use and night lighting, together with related socio-economic data, such as total energy consumption, population and GDP. We found that from 2000 to 2020, the urbanization of Yangtze River Delta region (YRD) led to a decrease of 2.75% in carbon storage supply and an increase of 226.45% in carbon storage demand. However, carbon storage supply was still larger than carbon storage demand, and the spatial mismatch of CSD is the most important problem at present. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the response measures from the comprehensive perspective of SES. We identified key ecological conservation areas using a Marxan model to protect the carbon storage capacity in ecological subsystems, and promoted a carbon compensation scheme based on both the grandfather principle and the carbon efficiency principle, reconciling the contradiction between ecological conservation and socio-economic development in the social subsystem. Finally, this study quantified the threshold of urbanization based on the carbon neutrality target at which CSD reaches an equilibrium state. This study proposed a SES framework, and a set of methodologies to quantify the relationship between urbanization and CSD, which will help mega-urban agglomerations to promote harmonious development of urbanization and ecological conservation and to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets proposed by the Chinese government.
快速的城市化在巨型城市群中扰乱了碳储存供给与需求（CSD）的平衡，并限制了可持续发展目标的实现。在这里，我们开发了一个社会-生态系统（SES）框架，该框架结合了生态系统服务（ES）级联和 DPSIR 模型，系统地分析了城市化对 CSD 的影响和响应。我们使用多源遥感数据（如土地利用和夜间照明）以及相关的社会经济数据（如总能源消耗、人口和 GDP）来量化城市化和 CSD。我们发现，从 2000 年到 2020 年，长江三角洲地区（YRD）的城市化导致碳储存供给减少了 2.75%，而碳储存需求增加了 226.45%。然而，碳储存供给仍然大于碳储存需求，目前最重要的问题是 CSD 的空间不匹配。因此，有必要从 SES 的综合角度探索应对措施。我们使用马克思安模型确定了关键的生态保护区，以保护生态子系统中的碳储存能力，并基于祖父原则和碳效率原则，促进了碳补偿计划，调和了社会子系统中生态保护与社会经济发展之间的矛盾。最后，本研究根据碳中性目标量化了城市化的阈值，在该阈值下 CSD 达到平衡状态。本研究提出了一个 SES 框架和一套量化城市化与 CSD 之间关系的方法，这将有助于巨型城市群促进城市化和生态保护的和谐发展，并实现中国政府提出的碳峰值和碳中和目标。
